It is no surprise that the Oilers and Ducks have scored bushels of goals already in their best-of-seven series. Not only do these two teams rely on their offense to drive the bus, but they have also been plagued by defensive flaws all season.
The Ducks allowed the fourth-most goals per game in the NHL during the regular season, while the Oilers aren’t much better at eighth-most.
Which side is more likely to sort out its problems ahead of Game 3?
Anaheim may have wrestled away home-ice advantage from the Oilers by winning one of two in Alberta, but the bookmakers haven’t budged much from where this series was priced before Game 1.
The Oilers remain a decided -210 favorite to win the best-of-seven, while Anaheim is sitting at +172 odds.
There are plenty of reasons why the Oilers, who finished just one point ahead of the Ducks in the regular season, are such lopsided favorites, but one of them is that Edmonton’s leakiness is more about shoddy goaltending than a porous defense.
The Oilers were not a defensive juggernaut at 5-on-5 during the regular season, but they were far from inept. Edmonton finished with the 13th-best expected goals against, and it allowed the 13th-fewest high-danger scoring chances per game.
Anaheim’s issues were far more alarming.
The Ducks did not get great goaltending, but that was because their goalies faced one of the toughest workloads in the league.
Anaheim ranked 28th in expected goals against and allowed the fourth-most high-danger scoring chances at 5-on-5. It’s no wonder its goaltenders finished with an .876 save percentage.
Neither Connor Ingram nor Tristan Jarry inspires much confidence in goal for the Oilers, but Edmonton’s defense stands a better chance of giving their goaltenders an easier night at the office than the Ducks.
That’s enough to back Edmonton as a slight road favorite Friday.
The Play: Oilers moneyline (-135, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
此内容由惯性聚合(RSS阅读器)自动聚合整理，仅供阅读参考。 原文来自 — 版权归原作者所有。