There are underdogs, and then there are the kind of underdogs that look like they just wandered into the wrong NBA arena. 

The Lakers aren’t just staring up at the Thunder in the Western Conference semifinals, they’re squinting at them through a telescope. 

Thankfully for the Lakers, this is not uncharted territory.

Ahead of their first-round playoff series against the much younger, faster and deeper Rockets, the Lakers opened as +475 underdogs. Without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, the Rockets were sitting comfortably at -650. 

The Lakers didn’t just survive that series, they deconstructed it. Over the course of six grueling games, coach JJ Redick and the Lakers stripped away Houston’s superpower on the offensive glass and extra possessions. By Game 6 in Houston, the Lakers dominated those categories and held the Rockets to the lowest scoring total than any team thus far in the postseason. 

Yes, Kevin Durant did not play in five of the six games, and his injury shifted the balance, but that doesn’t erase the Lakers’ execution. Especially without their top scorer. 

Now comes the Western Conference semifinals. By virtue of their victory over the Rockets in six games, the Lakers now earn the right to get absolutely smashed by the reigning champion Thunder. 

The second-round odds look more like a No. 16 vs. No. 1 seed in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. 

The Lakers open the series as +945 underdogs. Some books even pushed it to +1000. The Thunder are -1700 favorites. That means you’d have to lay $1,700 on OKC to win the series just to win $100.

Those opening lines are unprecedented for the Lakers’ franchise. According to Sports Odds History, the Lakers have never been this big of an underdog in a conference semifinal in the NBA’s modern era. And maybe not in any era!

Game 1 — scheduled for 5:30 p.m. Tuesday — has the host Thunder favored by 16 points. That’s more than just a spread, it’s an indictment.

For context, the last time LeBron James saw anything close to this kind of disrespect by oddsmakers was Game 1 of the 2018 NBA Finals, when his Cavaliers opened as +12.5 underdogs against the Warriors. The Cavs nearly won that game in regulation, only to lose by 10 in overtime. Nevertheless, they covered. 

But these odds? This is bigger. This is colder. 

And if you’re wondering why the odds are so high, look no further than the four-game season series between the teams. 

The Thunder swept the Lakers in four noncompetitive matchups this season. 

A 29-point beatdown in November. A February loss to a Thunder team missing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at Crypto.com Arena. The April 2 loss. A 43-point disaster that saw injuries to Doncic and Reaves swallow the Lakers whole. Then a 36-point loss in a glorified scrimmage a few days later. 

Average margin of defeat: 29.3 points.

That is the largest margin of defeat between any teams in a playoff matchup in NBA history. 

But honestly, these odds are probably exactly where they should be. 

The Thunder are younger, deeper, faster and more cohesive. They don’t just beat you, they break you. Led by SGA, who can beat you from deep, midrange and at the rim, they are one of the NBA’s best defensive teams and are constructed by talented players who all know and embrace their roles. They space the floor, they knock down 3s and they get out in transition. Their pace turns fatigue into a weapon. It overwhelms opponents. A close game can turn into a blowout in the blink of an eye. 

Against the oldest team still remaining in the NBA playoffs, without its MVP candidate, it borders on cruelty. 

Which brings us to Doncic. He’s the only chance the Lakers have in this series, and even that is slim. Right now, he’s on the outside looking in. He’s begun shooting and moving on the court, but still hasn’t progressed to 1-on-1 drills. He’s not expected to return for Game 1, but he could return at some point in the series. But by then, the series could already be decided. 

Once again, the Lakers are a team looking to survive long enough to buy Doncic more time. A group leaning on the brilliance of the 41-year-old James. They just emptied the tank against the Rockets; now they’re expected to sprint uphill against the reigning champions. 

The odds say this series ends quickly. It may even get ugly. But the playoffs don’t run on odds or logic. They run on unpredictability, momentum and chaos. 

Nobody predicted Durant’s injury. Nobody predicted the Lakers beating the Rockets at their own game without Doncic. And nobody is predicting the Lakers even have a chance against the Thunder. 

Is it likely the Lakers win the series? No. 

Is it possible? Well, that’s why they play the games.

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