The World Cup may be doing what the Mexican government couldn’t — bringing temporary peace to a country ravaged by cartel violence.

Mexican security analyst David Saucedo said he believes that drug cartels have shifted their focus to other crimes temporarily — instead of killing rivals.

“It seems there is a sort of a World Cup truce,” Saucedo said in an interview with Aristegui Noticias.

“In other words, according to reports from the prosecutors’ offices in various states embroiled in these cartel wars, there has been a notable reduction in homicides and high-impact violent incidents,” he said.

“It appears that drug trafficking groups across the country decided to take advantage of the World Cup — not to escalate conflict, but rather to focus on their criminal activities and boost profits.”

Mexico is hosting 13 matches and has seen a nationwide reduction in homicides since the first game in Mexico City on June 11, when Mexico beat South Africa 2-0 at Estadio Azteca.

There were 30 murders reported June 11, the lowest daily amount since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office in October 2024, according to government data.

And the 27 murders recorded on June 16 were the lowest in a decade.

Mexico City, which is host to five matches, and Guadalajara, Jalisco, home to four, each reported one homicide. Monterrey, the site of four matches, had no murders reported.

Cartel violence has also been toned down because the federal government has stopped going after the main players in the drug game, Saucedo said.

“There are no arrests of high-profile drug traffickers, no announcements of major seizures, and no significant operations against criminal organizations,” he said. 

Concerns emerged that World Cup games would be removed from Mexico following a war-like battle that led to the death of Jalisco New Generation Cartel founder Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera on Feb. 22. The carnage left 70 people dead and the cartel responded by setting vehicles and businesses on fire.

But the criminal organizations — including six that were labeled Foreign Terrorist Organizations by the US government — apparently have cooled off, according to Saucedo.

They are “allowing the tournament to proceed without high-impact incidents or the capture of high-profile traffickers — events that would otherwise trigger retaliatory actions by the cartels against the federal government,” he said.