Group G is perfectly poised as we head into the second part of the round robin.
Belgium, Egypt, Iran, and New Zealand are all on a level playing field with one point and an even goal difference, but the two teams that will be most disappointed with their first World Cup match are undoubtedly Belgium and Iran.
The Belgians were -170 favorites to defeat Egypt, but needed a second-half equalizer to earn a 1-1 draw. Iran was odds-on against New Zealand but fell behind twice before walking off the pitch with a 2-2 tie.
And it wasn’t just the result that would have left both Belgium and Iran with bitter tastes in their mouth after their first match. Neither side played particularly well, either.
Like a handful of favorites during their first match, Belgium looked out of answers for much of their tilt with Egypt. The Belgians were pretty toothless in the first 60 minutes, and it wasn’t until 33-year-old striker Romelu Lukaku came off the bench that they started to make sense on the field.
Lukaku didn’t get credit for Belgium’s lone goal, but it was all his doing.
The problem is that it’s hard to trust that Lukaku could be impactful for a full 90 minutes. Perhaps manager Rudi Garcia elects to start his country’s all-time leading scorer, but that could backfire if Iran holds the Red Devils off the board in the first hour. Then, who would Garcia turn to to change the tempo?
Regardless of who Garcia taps up front, it would behoove Belgium to be on the front foot from the opening whistle.
Although Iran came into the tournament with a reputation of being a rugged, defensively sound opponent, the Lions of Persia looked out of their depth at times against a New Zealand side that was full of pluck but would never be confused with France or Spain in terms of talent.
If Iran couldn’t keep the Kiwis quiet, then what happens if Belgium decides to go for it?
Perhaps that’s playing into Iran’s strength as a defend-and-counter team, but Belgium really has no other option. They will rue how conservative they were against Egypt, as they just seemed to be waiting for Kevin De Bruyne to create a moment of magic to unlock the game.
Playing through the middle with De Bruyne is a fine strategy when the situation calls for it, but Iran is going to commit to jamming things up in the midfield. That will put Jeremy Doku and Leandro Trossard, two elite attacking players out wide, into the spotlight. That should be a good thing for Belgium, so long as it isn’t stubborn about getting the ball to the feet of De Bruyne.
The other reason I expect a more aggressive approach from the Red Devils is that they know they need to get three points from this match if they’re going to win Group G, which would put them in a plum position for the beginning parts of the knockout stages.
Iran will believe in its ability to weather the storm against Belgium, but they showed some serious defensive vulnerabilities in their draw against New Zealand, so I have a hard time betting on Amir Ghalenoei’s side holding the fort for 90 minutes.
And one goal, whether it be for Belgium or Iran, will open this contest up further, as both sides know they need to get something out of this match if they want to advance.
The Over 2.5 goals looks to be a savvy bet for this one, and don’t shy away from Trossard to get on the board at +220, as this stylistic matchup should suit him.
The Play: Over 2.5 goals (-122) | Leandro Trossard to score 1+ goal (+220, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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