Buckle in for takeoff in Houston on Saturday.
Sweden and the Netherlands meet at NRG Stadium on Matchday 2, both riding highs off their opening World Cup performances.
Blågult scooped up three points to surge to the top of Group F in a 5-1 thrashing of Tunisia. It’s not often you see a conversion at such a scale, but chalk it up to a pure tactical mismatch. Premier League superstars Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres repeatedly punished Tunisia’s defensive mistakes and poor transition coverage while the North Africans’ midfield structure crumbled whenever possession was lost.
The Swedes enjoyed a perfect opponent to play into their strengths — so much so that Tunisia sacked their manager after the humiliation for several bone-headed decisions. Now comes the group-favorite Dutch, who won’t just roll over with their far more organized structure.
Oranje settled for a 2-2 draw against Japan in their opener — a match where they controlled possession for long stretches and looked dangerous whenever they got their wide attackers — Crysencio Summerville to be specific — in space.
They took the lead twice. The problem was that the Dutch became passive while ahead and allowed Japan to net the equalizer in the 89th minute. The discipline could be a lot better, though if there’s anything Oranje proved resoundingly, it’s that they can move the ball into dangerous areas and create chances.
Oddsmakers are nodding to the Dutch, who reflect a market-best price of -135 at DraftKings on the three-way moneyline. On the reverse, you can grab Sweden as long as +425 or a draw for +310.
Rather than back a side in a volatile matchup or expect another draw from a redemptive Netherlands group, I’m OK with the juice on both teams to score. After all, these are the two best offensive teams in Group F as the Dutch deploy the deepest attack while the Swedes counter with the isolated starpower in Isak and Gyökeres.
The Netherlands are the better possession team — it’s just a matter of whether they can convert against Sweden’s three-back system. Despite owning a healthy 59.8 percent in possession, the Dutch only projected 0.8 expected goals.
Midfielder Frenkie de Jong pilots the Dutch tempo and finds those high-quality scoring areas. Sweden is bound to spend long stretches defending him deep, and with the touted wide threats of Summerville and Sonyell Malen stretching defensive lines, we can bank on the Oranje seeing no shortage in chance volume.
Blågult has scoring efficiency going for them. They buried five goals with an 11 percent lower possession clip than the Netherlands and projected 0.5 more in expected goals.
This is a considerably more physical attack than Japan’s, and considering the vulnerability that the Netherlands just displayed in transition, we’re primed to see Sweden’s stars strike against some unsettled structure.
Both teams scored in 19 of 28 World Cup games heading into Friday’s slate. The best price out there is the -135 tag bet365 is offering for this game to end without a blank on both sides.
With a game script featuring two teams that can generate in opposite states, that’s a nice discount.
THE PLAY: Both teams to score (-135, bet365)
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
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