The sharp money was flying around, but it still missed the mark by a mile.
Betting on the NFL Draft, an information-based market, an obscene $15.45 million on Kalshi – and tens of millions more were wagered on legal sportsbooks, though those numbers aren’t public – and all of it thought they were smarter than the top reporters in the NFL.
Arvell Reese was 68 percent likely to be drafted by the Jets, at one point reaching as high as 81 percent on the prediction markets, and was -270 at FanDuel as of 6:45 P.M. ET, when they spurned the Ohio State edge rusher for David Bailey at No. 2 overall just two hours later.
It’s one of the most bizarre circumstances we’ve seen from the draft, regardless of sport, as previously betting/trading markets are usually predictive of what will happen in the actual event.
Perhaps this was a smokescreen by the Jets, or just a feather in the cap of the reporting world, with money-influencing mock drafters such as Daniel Jeremiah, Peter Schrager, and Mel Kiper Jr., among others, correctly predicting who the Jets would select.
Reese was later selected by the Giants No. 5 overall.
The money that came in on Reese was seemingly limitless at times; over $6 million was wagered on the No. 2 overall pick on Kalshi, by far the most on any draft pick in the NFL Draft this year on the platform.
Since the markets opened in January for the NFL Draft, Reese has been favored for the clear majority of the time, certainly more than 70 percent, according to their odds-tracking chart.
The shocking pick resulted in a shattering of the betting market, as Notre Dame running back Jeremiah Love was selected No. 3 overall despite money coming in on Bailey as the betting market backed Reese at No. 2.
Bailey was favored to go No. 3, though that flip-flopped throughout the night, and Love had a good amount of time as the Cardinals’ favorite as well.
The fourth pick offered further surprises, as Carnell Tate was selected No. 4 overall by the Titans, a result that had a 3.8 percent chance of happening just as the card was turned in to commissioner Goodell.
Anyone who thinks the NFL Draft results are compromised can go back to the drawing boards on that reality, even in the prediction market era.
Previously, we’ve had money rule the draft betting boards, with wagers correctly predicting the No. 3 overall pick in the 2021 Draft when Trey Lance jumped Mac Jones to the 49ers.
We’ve also seen former NBA super reporter Adrian Wojnarowski incorrectly predict that Jabari Smith would be selected No. 1 overall in the 2022 NBA Draft.
Smith was as high as -6000 to be selected by the Magic No. 1 overall, but bettors absolutely slammed Paolo Banchero, who was as high as +3000 in the lead up to the draft.
By draft time, Banchero was the favorite to be, and was taken No. 1 overall as Wojnarowski was infamously embarrassed on draft night.
History did not repeat itself on Thursday.
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
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