Nobody in the United States wants to see the Tartan Army leave our shores, but they’ve got some hard work to do if they want to extend their stay at the World Cup.
A win would automatically send the Scots through, but they can essentially guarantee a spot in the Round of 32 by avoiding defeat against Brazil. Even a one-goal loss could be enough to get Scotland into the knockout stages of a World Cup for the first time.
The bookies believe the Scots will be up against it, as they’ve installed Brazil as a -280 favorite on the three-way moneyline for this tilt in Miami.
It’s been a strange couple of weeks for Brazil.
Normally one of the hot favorites to lift the trophy, this iteration of Selecao were overlooked by most bettors and pundits in favor of Spain, France, England, Argentina, and Portugal. For the first time in decades, there weren’t punters lining up to pick the Brazilians to win the World Cup.
Their first match of the tournament backed up the skepticism. Facing off against Morocco, ranked No. 6 in FIFA’s World Rankings, the Brazilians looked tepid and uninspired. They earned a point thanks to a moment of magic from Vinicius Junior, but the performance was so middling that manager Carlo Ancelotti felt the team needed to apologize for it.
Things came a lot easier in their next match, but that was against Haiti, one of the biggest long shots in the field. Les Grenadiers deployed a risky strategy against Brazil, playing a high line to try and draw the Brazilians offside and keep the game in front of them, but the players on Canarinho are so technically gifted that they were able to play perfectly weighted passes behind Haiti and punish them.
Brazil’s 3-0 win was run-of-the-mill, more than it was impressive.
And now a different challenge will await Ancelotti’s men.
Unlike Haiti, Scotland are not averse to sitting deep and defending for 90 minutes. Manager Steve Clarke is a pragmatist above all else, and will know that a low-event match is the best chance his team has at advancing.
And to their credit, Scotland did a decent job of keeping things tidy against Morocco. The Atlas Lions scored 71 seconds into the contest, but the Scots dug in from there and held the scoreline to 1-0, giving them a real shot at punching their ticket to the Round of 32.
The Scots may have rode their luck a little bit in the first half against Morocco, but they grew into the game and were also on the wrong side of a couple of 50/50 penalty-shot decisions. In all, a one-goal loss to Morocco seemed a fair result.
The defending will need to be sharper against Brazil, but the Scots will also know that generating scoring chances shouldn’t be as difficult as it was against Morocco.
Brazil’s defense, especially in transition, has looked a step behind and could be punished by a Scotland attack that has some serious punching power.
Scott McTominay, Andy Robertson, John McGinn, and Ben Gannon-Doak give the Scots a diverse set of options going forward, and they’re also a real chore to deal with on set pieces.
While the narrative for this game is all about the Scottish backline and whether or not it can hold Brazil in check, the real value is on the Tartan Army‘s attack against a vulnerable Brazilian defense.
At even money, I think there’s plenty of value in backing the Scots to get on the board on Wednesday night. Betting Scotland to score the game’s first goal is not a bad shout, either.
The Play: Scotland Over 0.5 goals (+100) | Scotland to score first (+310, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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