The Heat are suddenly gaining serious traction in the Giannis Antetokounmpo sweepstakes in the prediction markets.
Miami has jumped to a 34 percent chance to land the Bucks superstar on Kalshi as of Thursday, making them the clear market favorite as speculation builds around the two-time NBA MVP’s future in Milwaukee.
Just over a week ago, the Bucks remained Antetokounmpo’s most likely team come opening night in the fall, but Miami has since surged past the Bucks amid growing trade buzz, skyrocketing from as low as 25 percent on Tuesday night.
There was $666,223 in volume on this market at the time of writing.
In late April, the Bucks’ chances at retaining Antetokounmpo were just a shade under 40 percent, with the Heat barely in the mix at nine percent and dropping as low as six percent earlier this month.
With speculation around Miami’s pursuit only getting louder, the market has shifted dramatically in their favor.
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Heat | 34 percent |
| Stays with the Bucks/retires | 19 percent |
| Cavaliers | 13 percent |
| Celtics | 10 percent |
| Nets | 6 percent |
| Timberwolbes | 5 percent |
| Magic | 4 percent |
| Warriors | 3 percent |
| Lakers | 3 percent |
| Knicks | 3 percent |
The Bucks are now trailing at 19 percent on Kalshi, followed by the Celtics at 10 percent as another potential landing spot for Antetokounmpo.
After holding onto Antetokounmpo through the trade deadline, ESPN’s Shams Charania reported earlier this month that the Bucks were “open for business” on trade calls and offers for the superstar.
Earlier this week, NBA insider Marc Stein reported that the Heat and Celtics were the two teams “believed to intrigue” Antetokounmpo should he be dealt out of Milwaukee.
Reporters Brian Windhorst and Chris Haynes would later push back on the notion that Antetokounmpo could be headed to Boston, which seemingly helped Miami’s chances of landing the coveted star.
Antetokounmpo, who has one year left on his deal with a player option for the 2027-28 season, is likely to have a say on where he is traded given his contract situation.
If a deal is done before the draft, the Heat would have three picks and multiple draft swaps, along with intriguing young talent like Tyler Herro, Kel’el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Nikola Jovic to potentially offer the Bucks for Antetokounmpo.
Dylan Svoboda is a versatile writer and analyst across many sports. He’s particularly knowledgeable about the big three — MLB, the NFL and the NBA.
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