Welcome to the Stanley Cup Playoffs, Salt Lake City.
Defensive lapses and momentum swings: that’s been the defining theme out West between Utah and Vegas, though the first four games of their first-round series.
A three-goal Vegas lead went to ashes before Shea Theodore buried a snap shot with less than a minute left in overtime to claim Game 4 against Utah.
With the series now tied at two apiece, the Golden Knights come back to Sin City as -165 favorites at bet365 Sportsbook.
Maybe it’s because each of the first four installments of this series have resulted in a one- or two-goal deficit, but oddsmakers have the goal total set as low as 5.5 on Wednesday.
That’s an attractive line for targeting the Over, considering there’s been hefty offensive pressure with both clubs averaging 3.25 goals for and against per game.
Goaltending ripples have been a theme, too. Karel Vejmelka struggled with tracking the puck in Game 4, and his Goals Saved Above Expected remains below the equator at minus-0.3. Carter Hart is down to minus-1.9; he has been serviceable, but far from reassuring.
Even though Vegas escaped Game 4, Hart struggled on low-danger shots and coughed up some juicy rebounds. When the ice began to tilt Vegas’ way, Hart couldn’t make the key save during critical stretches.
His impact just hasn’t been an x-factor, which brings pause to investing confidence. If the Knights had lost, Adin Hill, but with the series tied 2-2, the coaching staff is more inclined to stay the course — and Hart’s inexperience offers more volatility.
My biggest takeaway from two goaltenders who dwell beneath a .900 save percentage is that this series has had a steady diet of medium- and low-danger shots rather than high.
Vegas’ skill players are cashing in as Jack Eichel is consistently creating chances with the puck, netting a series-leading six points.
It’s only a matter of time before Vegas’ 5-on-5 prowess comes out in the wash. According to MoneyPuck, the Knights are a top-five team in both expected goals and shot attempt differential.
In contrast, Utah’s top line, of Dylan Guenther, Logan Cooley and Kailer Yamamoto have generated a 75-percent expected goals rate — 13th-highest amongst all lines in the playoffs.
This series has made for three comeback wins in four games and three cashes on the Over, so let’s play it conservative and count on that trend to continue.
THE PLAY: Over 5.5 (-122, Kalshi)
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
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