Czechia’s path to the World Cup was daunting, but Čeští Lvi got through it by the skin of their teeth. They showed resolve, craft, and chemistry in a comeback win against Ireland and a shootout victory against Denmark.
In many ways, the Czechs have already felt the pressure of a World Cup.
They’ll open things for real against a South Korea side that had quite a different qualifying experience.
The odds for this match at Estadio Akron in Guadalajara could hardly be tighter.
While Czechia had to run a gauntlet in Europe, the Taegeuk Warriors had as easy a path as you could like. South Korea didn’t lose any of its 16 matches (11W, 5D), but its stiffest competition came from Jordan, Iraq, and Oman, so take those results with a grain of salt.
Knowing they needed to test themselves, the South Koreans did put together a tough schedule of friendlies, with mixed results. The Taegeuk Warriors had impressive wins against the United States, Bolivia, and Ghana, but they came up well short against Brazil and the Ivory Coast. In other words, they back up what we already projected for South Korea, they’re a bang-average squad in this 48-team field.
Czechia, too, is one of the most average teams in this competition. But they do have a key stylistic advantage in this tilt.
While South Korea prefers to put the ball on the carpet and pass through you, the Czechs are a physical and bruising side. That should give them a distinct edge against the South Koreans, who struggle to cope with teams in 1-on-1 battles and aerial duels.
South Korea has some magic in its ranks with Son Heung-min, Lee Kang-in, and Kim Min-jae, but they need a free-flowing, up-and-down tempo to be at their best. They’re not likely to get that against the Czechs, who are perfectly poised to exploit South Korea’s biggest weaknesses so long as they keep this game on the rails.
The battle-hardened Czechs should have enough to put three points in their pocket on Thursday night.
The Play: Czechia moneyline (+175, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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