Tunisia’s World Cup has been full of drama.
The Lions of Carthage got crushed by Sweden, 5-1, in their first match of the tournament, and some 12 hours later, they made a coaching change. Tunisia fired Sabri Lamouchi and replaced him with one of international soccer’s most recognizable figures: Hervé Renard.
Renard, known for his trademark tan, open-necked white shirt, and conservative tactics, has been a mainstay at the World Cup for the better part of a decade. He was in charge of France at the 2023 Women’s World Cup, Saudi Arabia at Qatar 2022, and Morocco in 2018. Tunisia is the fifth different African nation that Renard has managed.
They’ll take on high-flying Japan at midnight ET on Sunday morning in Monterrey.
These two teams are polar opposites. While Tunisia is on its second manager of the tournament and seventh since 2024, Hajime Moriyasu has been in charge of Japan since 2018.
There are stark differences on the pitch, too.
Moriyasu has emboldened Samurai Blue to play an uptempo, frenetic style of play, and his players have embraced it. No matter the opponent, Japan wants to have the pedal to the medal. When they have the ball, they try to move it quickly up the field. When they don’t have it, they work tirelessly to get it back.
It took a while for Japan to get going against the Netherlands, but they were terrific in the second half and came from behind twice to earn a 2-2 draw against the Group F favorites.
They’ll face a different task against Tunisia, who are very likely to play a low block and try to peg Japan back on the counterattack. Costa Rica made that strategy work in a 1-0 win over Samurai Blue at the 2022 World Cup, but it’s hard to see how the North Africans are going to keep Japan off the scoresheet in this match.
Renard will clean up some of what ailed Tunisia’s defense against Sweden, but there are just too many leaks for Japan to exploit.
One goal for either side would open up this match considerably, as neither side can afford to lose it if they want to get into the Round of 32.
The Play: Over 2.5 goals (+108, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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