NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has issued a rare Level 4 out of 5 risk of severe thunderstorms for parts of Kansas and southeastern Nebraska, with violent EF-3+ tornadoes being the main threat.

While parts of the Central Plains and the Midwest are in the bull’s-eye of storms that are expected to fire beginning early Monday afternoon, a broader severe weather threat covers more than 80 million people across a 1,000-mile corridor from North Texas to western New York.

This potential outbreak follows severe weather that barreled through the Central Plains and Midwest over the weekend, which produced several tornadoes, including a Tornado Emergency in Nebraska, as well as large hail and damaging wind gusts.

The highest risk of tornadoes will be early to mid Monday afternoon, as severe weather first develops, likely after 2 p.m. CT.

Supercell thunderstorms capable of generating violent, long-track tornadoes (EF-3+) and softball-sized hail will be possible across Central and northeastern Kansas, including Wichita.

However, if thunderstorms form as a group instead of lone supercells, it would limit twister intensity and development.

The FOX Forecast Center also highlighted cool air left behind by morning rain as a factor that could limit the intensity of storms on Monday afternoon. 

While tornadoes will still be possible, the threat is expected to decrease into the evening. 

A broader Level 3 threat extends into central Iowa, northwestern Missouri, and northern Oklahoma.

By nighttime, storms are expected to organize into a line, and damaging wind gusts up to 75 mph will become the main hazard.

Across parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, storms will fire along a cold front beginning Monday afternoon and lasting through the evening.

Damaging wind, hail, and heavy rain are expected to be the main threats and could cause localized power outages.

A broad Level 2 threat includes parts of Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan, including the Milwaukee and Chicago metro areas.

Severe storms are expected to persist into the overnight hours on Tuesday as a wall of heavy rain and strong winds that will impact at least a dozen states. 

Across the Southern Plains, the primary threat will be from any supercells that are able to form in the afternoon.

A Level 2 threat covers most of Oklahoma and parts of North Texas.

Severe weather threat pushes into Tuesday

As storms continue into Tuesday, severe storms will expand into the Ohio Valley, where a Level 2 threat has been issued. 

Tuesday’s storms will pack widespread 1–2 inches of rain from Northern Minnesota through northeastern Texas, where a minor risk of flash flooding is possible as these storms push east. 

The multi-day severe weather threat wraps up by the end of Tuesday, before the wet weather returns for millions of Americans headed into Memorial Day weekend.