As we inch closer to the end of group play and the beginning of the knockout round at the World Cup, there’s still plenty to be decided in Group F.
Japan comes in with four points after securing a tie and a win, while the Swedes lost to the Netherlands and will have a bit of work to do to secure a spot in the next round.
Samurai Blue only needs a draw to advance to the next round, so Sweden will be the more desperate unit to get over the hump and score a victory.
The odds for this game are very interesting, with Japan as high as +125 on the moneyline per Caesars and as low as -120 on FanDuel.
That’s a massive difference, but it makes sense considering Japan may be content to sit back and take a draw.
Draw is the second-most likely outcome, listed as high as +260 on DraftKings.
Regardless of how you shake it, Japan usually plays three at the top, which should be troubling for Sweden, as they will need to commit significant resources up front if they want to snag a win.
Japan’s usual aggressive game plan isn’t conducive to sitting back and letting Sweden attack and easily thwart them to chew up the clock.
The Samurai Blue hopes to be the team to score first and work with a lead. If they’re behind early, Japan is in a good spot to work their comeback forces.
Sweden’s attack is led by their stars, Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres.
The total for this game comes in at 2.5, and while they may sit in a 1-1 stalemate where Japan holds its breath for the better part of the second half, I think both offenses are capable, and defenses are beatable.
I’ll take the over 2.5 total goals, and if you’re looking to bet Sweden, be sure to take +.5 against the spread (-110) given Japan’s specific rooting interests in this game.
PREDICTION: Over 2.5 total goals (-135, DraftKings) | Sweden +0.5 goals (-110, Fanatics)
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
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