The 108th PGA Championship has been a round of musical chairs: blink and there’s a new leader.
No one has been able to create any separation from the pack because of cruel pin placement, laser-fast greens and gusty wind conditions that have even caused pace of play issues.
Each round has finished with a crowded dead heat, and with so much to be decided in Sunday’s final round at Aronimink Golf Club, it’s best to back the players with the pedigree.
Yes, Ludvig Aberg has just two wins on the PGA Tour, but he entered the tournament with the fifth-shortest odds at 16/1. After kicking off the first round with a plus-2 72, Aberg clawed his way back into the a five-way tie for second place at 4-under after three rounds, trailing third-round leader Alex Smalley by just two shots.
The Swede fired a 2-under 68 on Saturday to get there. He was tied for first overall in strokes gained and was the sole best player in tee-to-green metrics in the third round, which is critical at a course that features diabolical green complexes and over 170 bunkers.
In fact, these course conditions have made elite ball-striking more valuable than elite putting, and there’s no player in this field that aligns better right now.
Aberg also showed resilience in the second round by making just one bogey while hitting 17 greens in regulation. He kickstarted his run into Saturday with four birdies on the last seven holes of that round.
On the subject of building momentum, Aberg was rolling into the PGA Championship, having finished no worse than 13th (which was at the Masters) in his last five starts.
At 6/1 odds to claim the Wanamaker Trophy, the course difficulty is giving bettors massive value on Aberg, whose patience has paid dividends. Rather than complaining about the pin placements, Aberg said he’s not trying to “force anything.”
Rory McIlroy is another guy whose vast upward mobility throughout these last couple of days is worth investing in for the final round. McIlroy carded a 4-under 66 to move into a tie for seventh, three strokes off the lead on Saturday. That’s a big climb since beginning the week at 4-over and calling his play, “S—.”
McIlroy has been killing the ball off the tee: he was ranked third in strokes gained off the tee on Saturday and is No. 4 overall in driving distance.
You can’t go wrong with backing the two-time PGA Championship winner at this stage of a major, especially one month removed from a second-straight Masters jacket.
The play: Ludvig Aberg outright winner (+600, DraftKings) | Rory McIlroy top-five finish (+108, DraftKings)
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
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