“Disclosure Day” is expected to open between $40M and $50M this weekend against some stiff, non-film related competition, according to box-office tracking so far.

The World Cup kicks off on Friday when the USA plays Paraguay at Sofi Stadium, and weekend matches will also take place in Toronto, Philly, Dallas, San Francisco and New York, among others. Game 5 of the NBA Finals, in which the Knicks could close out the series, takes place on Saturday night.

“The difficulty for ‘Disclosure Day’ to stand out right now was summed up by its premiere at Lincoln Center on Monday night,” pointed out Boxoffice Pro’s Daniel Loria. “[The premiere was] overshadowed by another star-studded event a couple subway stops away: the first Knicks home game in the NBA Finals.”

Loria added of the film: “Between the NBA Finals, [the] kick off to the World Cup, the summer weather, and the ‘Obsession’/’Backrooms’ phenomenon, [‘Disclosure Day’] hasn’t really been able to carve out its own space in the culture, which is probably why it feels so muted.”

The film’s tracking thus far, according to the industry box office outlet, would indicate it’ll pass $100M and be in line with Jordan Peele’s “Nope,” which opened in 2022 to $44M and wound up with a $123M domestic total.

One industry insider who will keep a close eye on the film’s performance will be director Joseph Kosinski. The “F1” and “Top Gun: Maverick” filmmaker is developing his own high-profile UAP film at Apple. The untitled UFO conspiracy thriller, written by Zach Baylin and produced by Jerry Bruckheimer is just one of several high-profile projects Kosinski has in the works.

A source close to the project told P6H that the filmmakers will be keeping a close eye on the weekend results, which could determine if the untitled project leapfrogs a planned sequel to “F1” that is also set up at Apple.

Kosinski is currently shooting a follow-up to “Miami Vice,” starring Michael B. Jordan and Austin Butler.