The road to the NBA Finals in the East will go through the Garden.
How fitting that the Knicks and Cavaliers, the two teams predicted to be the best in the East before the season, will meet in the Eastern Conference finals.
The Knicks are the favorite in the series and in Game 1 with the spread between Knicks -6.5 and -7.5 across the market.
The road for each team has been completely different.
The Knicks opened the playoffs looking vulnerable through three games, then went on a run the franchise had never seen even in its championship years. They’ve won seven straight games by an average of 26.4 points entering Tuesday’s Game 1 at MSG.
The closest win in that stretch was by six points against the 76ers, and they’ve scored at least 120 points in four of those games, while allowing 100 points just twice.
It has been a completely different story for the Cavs.
The Cavs opened the playoffs with a pair of good wins then ended up in two dogfight series against the Raptors and Pistons that both went seven games.
But the energy they needed to exert just to get to this round could be their undoing.
The Knicks have had eight full days off since the conference semis, but I’d argue every team would prefer to be rested at this point in the season. The Cavs have not had more than one day’s rest since Game 3 of the first round, meaning they’ve played nearly every other day for a month.
That might not seem like a big deal on the surface, but having to play 10 consecutive high-pressure games with no extra days for travel or practice can wear on a team.
Against the Pistons, the Cavs looked sluggish, especially in the second halves. Their effective field goal percentage dropped from 56.6 in the first half to 49.8 in the second half during that series, largely because they couldn’t hit 3s.
The Knicks’ numbers in the second half of games during their win streak are comical and they’ve had several games where the starters didn’t need to play the fourth quarter because the margins were so wide. Even if you add in their losses to the Hawks, they rank third among playoff teams in defensive rating (104.0) and effective field goal percentage (57.3 percent).
I could see the Knicks needing a half to get back into the rhythm they showed during their win streak, but I think the Cavaliers’ tired legs will catch up to them as the game wears on and cause those jumpers to come up short.
I’ll bet the Knicks to cover the second-half spread at -3.5.
The Play: Knicks -3.5 2H (-105, Caesars)
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
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