Before his company’s epic bankruptcy, Ryan Kavanaugh pitched Hollywood that he could predict box office winners with his “Monte Carlo” algorithm. We all know how that turned out, but that hasn’t stopped other newcomers from trying to data-hack what actually hits box office gold. 

The Cinelytic Group, a data and analytics company whose customers include Warner Bros. and WME, has a tool that uses AI to predict global box office as early as two years out. Today it’s rolling out an improvement that can forecast how a film or TV show will perform overseas in as many as 88 different territories. And it’s not just box office performance, Cinelytic forecasts the entire revenue lifecycle, its company’s CEO and co-founder Tobias Queisser tells Page Six Hollywood. 

“We really focus on early stage forecasting, which we think is the key in order to make our industry more sustainable,” Queisser says. “You can still make budget decisions.”

Cinelytic uses a range of factors in its modeling: Production budget, genre, cast and key behind-the-scenes talent, franchise value, theatrical formats, as well as release strategies (such as a wide rollout or platform release). Users — most Hollywood customers work in distribution and marketing — can get a report within seconds, the company claims. 

As use (and fear) of AI in Hollywood continues to increase, Cinelytic is one of the companies that is positioning itself as a “utility AI” tool meant to augment human thinking, not replace it. It’s led by a mix of people with entertainment, finance and science backgrounds. Quiesser was a former investment banker and previously founded Arctic Pictures Limited, an international film production company. Dev Sen, his co-founder, was a NASA scientist. The company’s COO is Christian Monti, a former Paramount and Warner Bros. distribution exec. 

Though Cinelytic’s predictive modeling can see how a certain actor would contribute to (or even hamper) a movie’s future success, “This is not for creative decision making,” he said. “It’s very important that the creative decision making is done by a director or creative producer.”