New Zealand and Egypt each defied the odds by earning a draw in their first match.
The All Whites were plucky and precise in a 2-2 draw against Iran, while the Pharaohs were the better team for most of the match in a 1-1 tie against Belgium.
Both sides know that their best remaining chance at getting a win, and essentially clinching a spot in the next round, comes Sunday night in Vancouver.
The bookies have installed Egypt as a -165 favorite for this crucial match.
Egypt was nearly note-perfect in the first half against Belgium.
Instead of just digging in defensively, Hossam Hassan had his side play with more vigor and try to limit the time and space Belgium’s attackers had on the ball and create turnovers that would turn into counterattacks.
They’ll need a very different strategy against New Zealand, because the last thing the Kiwis will want is to be on the ball. Although some of New Zealand’s playmakers, particularly Elijah Just, looked dangerous against Iran, they’re just not built to put the ball on the carpet and try to break down a low block.
New Zealand will want to be direct and get the ball up to their talismanic striker, Chris Wood, as quickly as possible.
That will put Egypt in a somewhat unnatural position. There are a couple of elite talents in Hassan’s lineup, but Mo Salah and Omar Marmoush are finishers more than they are string-pullers, and you better believe that New Zealand will do everything it can not to allow Egypt’s two best players to beat them.
Marmoush and Salah are capable of overwhelming New Zealand, but the price you have to pay for that happening is steep, especially since the All Whites are more than capable of giving Egypt issues.
Outside of those two players, there really isn’t a huge talent gap between these two rosters.
New Zealand looked dangerous going forward against Iran, and Wood’s presence makes the Kiwis a real threat on set pieces and counterattacks.
There is a path to an upset for New Zealand.
The Play: New Zealand moneyline (+470, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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