The Ducks and Golden Knights have gone tit for tat through the first four tilts of this conference semis series.
Knotted up at two games apiece heading back to Las Vegas, the pattern says it’s the Golden Knights’ turn for victory — they are listed as -162 favorites at DraftKings.
Anaheim was one shot better on the power play, going 2-for-4, as Alex Killorn and rookie Beckett Sennecke each notched a power-play goal and an assist to edge Vegas 4-3. The Ducks are now cruising to a 32.3 percent clip on the man advantage, which is the best rate of any team left still playing.
The Knights lost captain Mark Stone for the second and third periods of Game 4 due to a lower-body injury. They will carry on without him again on Tuesday at T-Mobile Arena.
Many expected the Ducks to fold under pressure against a veteran Vegas team that’s three years removed from hoisting the Stanley Cup.
But their victory Sunday was arguably their most complete performance of the playoffs — a run that has so far made for top-five marks in both Expected Goals and Corsi Percentage (puck possession) at five-on-five.
Anaheim is doing an outstanding job stacking the neutral zone and preventing clean zone entries, which even Vegas head coach John Tortorella credited.
We saw dangerous chances muted in Game 4 with forwards collapsing low to support a defense that was aggressive in boxing out forwards and clearing out rebounds.
Vegas leans heavily on interior offense, and outside of Mitch Marner and Brett Howden, no one is generating enough right now.
It might be time to give credit where it’s due: we all underestimated the Ducks.
Joel Quenneville’s lineup changes paid instant dividends. Mason McTavish, Olen Zellweger and Ian Moore, who scored the game winner, all made noticeable impacts after returning to the lineup.
The young talent is adapting on the fly as Beckett Sennecke continues his breakout postseason with three straight games with a goal.
There’s a four-way tie for the team postseason points leader between Leo Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier, Jackson LaCombe and Troy Terry. All of them are playing their debut playoff campaigns.
Lukas Dostal bounced back nicely in Game 4 after getting the hook in the game prior. He has stopped only 88 percent of the shots he’s faced in this series, but the structure in front of him is enough to keep the net fortified no matter which version he brings with a playoff-worst minus-4.4 Goals Saved Above Expected.
The Ducks have allowed 6.99 Expected Goals Against to Vegas’ 8.17 in this series, so I’m taking the better defensive profile to prevail.
THE PLAY: Ducks (+136, DraftKings)
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
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