The betting market is buying in on the Cam Schlittler fairytale.
The Yankees wunderkind is now the betting favorite to win the AL Cy Young Award at bet365 Sportsbook with +230 odds, putting him just ahead of teammate Max Fried (+300).
Schlittler entered the season as a triple-digit long shot at some sportsbooks.
While Schlittler’s rise up the betting board coincides with back-to-back AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal underdoing elbow surgery that is likely to sideline him for two to three months, his numbers paint him as a deserving favorite.
The Walpole, Mass., native is 5-1 with a 1.52 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in eight starts, and he’s fourth in the majors with 53 strikeouts in 47 1/3 innings. Perhaps most impressively, Schlittler has only walked nine batters this season, which puts him in the 94th percentile of qualified pitchers when it comes to walk rate.
Schlittler’s surface-level numbers are astounding, especially considering this is his first full season in the MLB, but they are no fluke. The right-hander’s underlying stats, which tend to be more predictive than descriptive, are also eye-popping.
According to Baseball Savant, Schlittler’s 2.69 xERA puts him in the 89th percentile leaguewide, and his 38.4 percent chase rate lands him in the 96th.
But it’s not just swings-and-misses that have turned Schlittler into an overnight ace; he’s also in the 77th percentile in groundball rate and his 0.19 home runs per 9 innings in the third-best mark in MLB.
While everything points in the right direction for Schlittler, there is one major red flag when it comes to buying in on him at this short price.
Aaron Boone and the Yankees haven’t tipped their hand about managing his workload throughout the season, and they allowed him to complete eight innings against the Red Sox on April 23, but it seems logical that they will be very proactive in keeping Schlittler fresh for the stretch run and postseason.
And with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon yet to join the rotation, there may be no reason to push Schlittler during the dog days, which could limit his ceiling in 2026.
That possibility is pretty crucial if you’re considering betting on him as the favorite in this market.
Betting value aside, it’s still been a jaw-dropping start to the campaign for Schlittler.
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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