One of the most intriguing matches of the World Cup’s group stage comes our way at 11 p.m. ET in Seattle on Friday night when Iran takes on Egypt.
Mo Salah and the Pharaohs all but assured themselves of a spot in the Round of 32 with a draw against Belgium and a win over New Zealand, but Iran needs to get something out of this match if it wants to join them.
A draw would almost certainly do the job for The Lions of Persia, but a win could see Iran top the group.
Egypt is a +145 favorite on the three-way moneyline, while Iran is sitting at +280. Bookmakers weren’t born yesterday, so the draw is all the way down to +160 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Egypt has been one of the most impressive outfits at the World Cup so far. The Pharaohs were unlucky to be held to a draw against Belgium, and they scraped their way to a 3-1 win over New Zealand after falling behind in the early stages.
The attack led by Mo Salah, Omar Marmoush, and Trezeguet has been superb.
That said, the conditions of this match will look quite different compared to what Egypt saw against Belgium and New Zealand. While those two teams were more than willing to open up and attack, Iran will be entrenched in a low block, as they know their best chance of advancing is by keeping a lid on this match.
It’s hard to argue with them.
While Egypt’s attack is a real strength, the defense has not been airtight. New Zealand was pretty unlucky to only score once against the Pharaohs, who struggled to cope with the Kiwis on set pieces and in transition.
That just happens to be Iran’s bread and butter.
Against Belgium and New Zealand, Egypt’s playmakers were afforded the space and time needed to make their mark. They won’t get that against Iran, who are a real threat to clap back at the Egyptians on the counter.
This stylistic matchup should suit the Iranians.
The Play: Iran moneyline (+280, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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