One of the most peculiar matches in World Cup history will take place on Saturday between Algeria and Austria.
But first, some historical context.
Back in 1982, West Germany defeated Austria, 1-0, in a World Cup group-stage match in Gijon, Spain. The result sent both teams through to the next round, while eliminating Algeria.
Because Algeria had already played its final match, both teams knew that a 1-0 win for the Germans would be enough to send both teams through, so there was plenty of suspicion that the two countries had agreed to a “non-aggression pact” before the contest.
It didn’t look great that neither side really pressed for a goal after West Germany’s first tally.
An investigation was launched, but the result stood. It’s been known as the “Disgrace of Gijon” ever since, and forced FIFA to change its rules. Since then, the final matches of the group stage have been played simultaneously.
This matters because Saturday’s match between Austria and Algeria could wind up looking the same.
Both teams have accumulated three points after two games, having defeated the now-eliminated Jordan and lost to Argentina, which has already clinched top spot in the group. Austria has the better goal differential, so they’d finish runner-up with a win or a draw. Algeria would advance with a tie, but would likely be eliminated with a loss.
In other words, a draw would be a mutually beneficial result.
Bookmakers were not born yesterday, which is why the draw is actually a +130 favorite on the three-way moneyline. Austria is +180, while Algeria is +290 to win.
The Over/Under is also being wildly impacted by this scenario, as Under 2.5 goals is sitting at -240. That’s an unheard of price, especially in a tournament where the goals are flying in left and right.
What is a bettor to do in this situation?
It is easy to get caught up in the drama of these scenarios, but the best thing to do in this situation is to try to leave the temptation of betting into the narrative to the side.
In most matches, the draw is priced between +230 and +260, and I’d argue it would actually be higher if these two teams met under different pretenses. Austria plays a frenetic, high-event style of soccer, and that makes them a bad team to target with a draw bet.
Algeria also isn’t a team that just likes to park the bus and play for a stalemate.
Les Fennecs weren’t all that competitive against Argentina, but against Jordan, they dominated the ball and showed some attacking flair, scoring twice while creating 1.9 expected goals and attempting 17 shots.
Algeria has a handful of magicians with the pill, Riyad Mahrez, Ibrahim Maza, and Rayan Ait-Nouri, and they’ll want to get this game at their feet.
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The problem is that the Austrians are built to overwhelm teams that want to build up slowly and pick apart defenses with precision. If you’re not up to Austria’s speed, they will press you into mistakes.
Algeria has some match-winners in its ranks, but Austria has the talent and stylistic advantage in this matchup, and if this game were being played under normal circumstances, they’d be a much shorter price.
Bet against there being a “Disgrace of Kansas City” on Saturday.
The Play: Austria moneyline (+180, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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