Cape Verde’s Cinderella story continues on Friday.
After holding Spain and Uruguay to draws, the Blue Sharks will advance to the Round of 32 if they avoid defeat against Saudi Arabia in Houston.
It would be a monumental accomplishment for the World Cup debutantes, and the bookies like their chances of pulling it off. Cape Verde is +145 on the three-way moneyline at FanDuel Sportsbook, but the price on the Blue Sharks to win or draw is -250.
Most of the attention will be focused on Cape Verde in this matchup because of their Cinderella story, but Saudi Arabia isn’t here for ceremonial reasons. The Falcons are still alive and need a win to get into the Round of 32.
The perception of Cape Verde has changed over the last fortnight, but had you offered Saudi Arabia a win-and-in scenario against the Blue Sharks before the tournament, they’d have taken it and run.
That said, this Cape Verde team has shown some serious gusto through its first two matches. Against Spain, the tournament favorites, the Blue Sharks defended with incredible discipline, keeping La Furia Roja off the board and committing just one foul in 90 minutes.
In their 2-2 draw with Uruguay, Cape Verde showed it had more to it than just a dogged defense. They still deployed a bend-but-don’t-break strategy, but Bubista’s side was dangerous on the counterattack against La Celeste.
Saudi Arabia deserves credit for their 1-1 draw against Uruguay, but they’ve yet to show much more than a willingness to defend and counter. The Falcons sit deep in two low blocks, and if they get a chance, they’ll send a few players forward in transition.
Unlike Cape Verde, we haven’t seen them look too menacing in attack. They’ve got one goal and have created just 0.8 expected goals, which was the second-worst mark of the tournament after two matches.
The game state should also suit Cape Verde. While the West African side can dig in and play for a draw if they choose, the Saudis need to go for the win. At some point, the Falcons will need to come out of their shell and try to take over the game. That isn’t really in their DNA, and could leave them vulnerable against a side that has proven to be a real threat in transition.
Bet on the Cape Verde fairytale to continue on Friday.
The Play: Cape Verde moneyline (+145, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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