President Trump is facing a moment of maximum peril in his handling of Iran — one that will shape his legacy, America’s stature and perhaps the course of history itself.
We are entering the sixth week of a two-week cease-fire that was agreed to on the pre-condition that the Strait of Hormuz would be opened immediately.
Yet it never opened, and Iran continues to attack our Arab allies — while it dithers and strings out talks. What gives?
The prez’s big risk: Political pressure over the midterms and the buzzing of isolationists in Trump’s own camp might nudge him to take any deal that lets him declare victory, save face and bug out of Iran.
This would be a catastrophic mistake, comparable almost to Neville Chamberlain’s appeasement of Hitler at Munich in 1938.
It would burn his legacy on the bonfire of political expediency.
Walking away with a bad deal now would enhance the stature of Iran, vindicate its claims to regional hegemony, place our Arab and Israeli allies in a precarious position and signal to China, Russia and the middle powers that American resolve is paper-thin.
It would also render meaningless the sacrifice of tens of thousands of brave Iranian citizens who were slaughtered for daring to stand up against nearly 50 years of the mullahs’ tyranny.
Trump has long condemned President Barack Obama’s 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action as a sellout deal that rewarded Iranian obstreperousness about its pursuit of a nuclear bomb and support for terror proxies throughout the region.
But the shape of negotiations today makes it plausible that, in exchange for vague promises about weapons and nuclear enrichment, Iran could emerge with the power to toll the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, a ton of cash and a burnished reputation covering up its savagery.
This would be a statement of humiliation that would make Obama look like Sun Tzu by comparison.
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Plus Iran would quickly rebuild its damaged infrastructure, resupply its depleted stocks of missiles and resume arming Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis, confident that US threats of retaliation are empty.
And what future president would want to open up the Islamic Republic can of worms once again?
Meanwhile, Iran uses its friends in Pakistan and Qatar to communicate that a great deal is just around the corner.
Iran’s latest peace proposal reportedly contained nearly all the outrageous demands — reparations, release of frozen funds, no more Israeli attacks on Hezbollah terrorists — as its previous one.
Yet Trump agreed yet again to hold off on any military action and allow talks to proceed for days more, perhaps even a week.
The White House may have some tactical reason for this: Arab allies, for example, may need to prepare their defenses.
Yet every time Trump waves his fist at Iran and promises to take out “a whole civilization,” only to reset the clock when time expires, he diminishes his image and squanders American credibility.
The choices in the next few days will shape not only Trump’s legacy but the role of the United States as a global power and the protector-of-last-resort of the world’s sea lanes.
After Britain’s 1956 Suez crisis, British Prime Minister Anthony Eden walked away from Suez, handing Nasser control of the canal and the power to shape the Middle East for decades to come.
Asked what he would have done, Winston Churchill said: “I would never have dared; and if I had dared, I would certainly never have dared stop.”
Trump acted boldly when he struck a blow against the Iranian regime and vowed to denuclearize it.
Backing down now would demonstrate not peace through strength, but peace through weakness. And a surely temporary peace at that.
Don’t buckle now, Mr. President. Finish the job.
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