Knicks fans are at odds with sportsbooks over their chances to win the NBA Finals and we talked to the man who sets the prices.
DraftKings oddsmaker Johnny Avello explained to The Post in an exclusive interview why the Knicks, who just steamrolled everyone en route during an 11-game winning streak to win the Eastern Conference, are 2:1 underdogs to win the title despite the eye test telling a different story.
“We’re not disrespecting the Knicks,” Avello said with a chuckle when asked about the +210 pricing to win the Finals and even worse odds to beat the Thunder, should they vanquish the Spurs. “We’re going by what our model tells us based on how these teams play. Not only through the year but through the playoffs. They got the 76ers. I’m not taking anything away from them, but the 76ers team with (Joel) Embiid is 50%. A Cavalier team that was weaker than the Pistons.”
The Knicks’ odds to beat the Thunder come in at +215, as of Thursday afternoon, and should the Spurs rally from a 3-2 series deficit in the Western Conference finals, they sit at +185 odds to beat them.
While those odds could change, the underdog Knicks have basked in that role since their inception.
Star guard Jalen Brunson, who was drafted in the second round of the and counted out for large portions at the start of his professional career, especially embodies that status.
“That doesn’t mean we haven’t seen the Knicks improve or elevate,” Avello continued. “Their overall power rating has grown, but they are defending the champs on the other side. They’ll be less of a dog to the Spurs, but it’s all about who you played through this point.”
Avello added that the Eastern Conference is worse than the Western Conference, which is fair considering the Celtics’ flameout in Round 1 and the top-seeded Pistons’ second-round loss to Cleveland.
“Just look at the East, the Pistons had the second-best record in the league. A few years ago, they couldn’t win a game. They’re not one of the premier teams in the league. The Celtics got (Jayson) Tatum back, but he was injured,” Avello said. “I mentioned the Cavs, they’re a decent team. (James) Harden is a future Hall of Famer, but when you look at his overall game, his defense isn’t good. The Raptors, the Hawks? The West side has Thunder, Spurs, Nuggets, Timberwolves and Lakers. They all rival the top teams in the East. That’s what makes the West a bit stronger.”
Should the Western Conference Finals become a dogfight in Game 6 and a potential Game 7, you could be looking at the Knicks shortening the odds, but they won’t be favorites by the time the Finals start.
“If the Spurs were to win 6 and then it goes 7, and Game 7 is another battle, that may lower the Knicks’ price a bit,” Avello explained. “The amount that they had to work matters. Injuries are an issue for both (the Spurs and Thunder). There are some question marks on both teams, but that price is what we know going into tonight. If the Spurs win (Game 6), the price will come down.”
“If things don’t go as planned on our side, the series goes seven and goes into overtime, and the players are exhausted going into the Finals, it is a possibility that the Knicks close shorter.”
Once the series is concrete, that’s when this is going to be bet on heavily.
“I’m anticipating Knick money. If there’s big money on them, it could move, but we’re not adjusting a line solely based on the money that’s going to come in,” Avello said.
“We price it based on what the line should be. We feel this should be correct.”
So there you have it, the sportsbooks are drawing a clean line in the sand that the Knicks are inferior to the Western Conference powers.
Perhaps some more bullet-in board material for the “no one believes in us” Knicks.
“I expect this to be the biggest betting basketball series of all time,” Avello concluded.
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
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