Every Kentucky Derby is ripe for chaos, but this year’s Run for the Roses has all the right ingredients to produce a shock winner.
Unlike last year, when bettors targeted Journalism, Sovereignty (the eventual winner) and Sandman out of a relatively weak field of contenders, this year’s crop of horses is incredibly difficult to separate.
Renegade, who drew the dreaded No. 1 post position, is the chalk, but he was already considered a lukewarm favorite before he was slotted into the inside rail.
The last horse to win from the No. 1 gate was Ferdinand in 1986.
And beyond Renegade, it seems like bettors are having a really tough time establishing who the horses to beat are in this field.
No. 6 Commandment and No. 18 Further Ado were tagged as co-second favorites on the morning line at 6-1, but it looks like they both could drift as bettors pile money onto No. 8 So Happy and No. 9 The Puma.
Other trendy horses that could pop up Saturday include No. 15 Emerging Market and No. 11 Incredibolt, both of whom were tempting prices when the morning line was revealed last week.
All of this is to say, this is anybody’s race. And that means you’re going to want to, responsibly, sprinkle a long shot or two one way or another for this year’s Run for the Roses.
Will this be the end of the Curse of the Rising Sun at Churchill Downs?
There have been plenty of trendy Japanese-bred horses in previous iterations of the Kentucky Derby, but none have found a way to break through, and it doesn’t seem like No. 7 Danon Bourbon will attract the kind of support that previous invaders like Forever Young did.
That should be good news for value-hunters, as this horse, at least on paper, has the goods.
Not only is Danon Bourbon undefeated in three starts, but he dominated the competition in Japan, winning by a combined 18 1/2 lengths and setting a record in the Fukuryu Stakes.
Do not sleep on Golden Tempo in this race.
Although she’ll have to come from the outside thanks to his post position, that shouldn’t be a huge deal for a horse that already prefers to break from the back of the pack.
And this race is perfect for a talented deep closer.
All signs point to another fast pace for this year’s Kentucky Derby, which should lead to plenty of tired horses fading down the stretch after trying to keep up with the frontrunners, No. 4 Litmus Test, No. 18 Further Ado and No. 8 So Happy.
As horses begin to tire, Golden Tempo should be kicking into gear and could come from the clouds to pull off something special.
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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