Victor Wembanyama and San Antonio proved their 62-game regular season was no fluke in Round 1, closing out a gritty Trailblazers team in five games and securing the franchise’s first playoff series win in over a decade.
They’re athletic, have a deep roster, and are very reminiscent of the team on the opposite side of the Western Conference bracket, the reigning champion OKC Thunder.
Now standing in their way is a resilient Timberwolves roster that showcased its depth and high-pressure defense, sending Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets home in six despite major injuries to key starters.
At this stage of the NBA playoffs, scouting reports and preparation are vital, but this second-round matchup ultimately hinges on Anthony Edwards’ health.
In Game 4 of the Wolves’ opening-round series, Edwards suffered a knee hyperextension, and initial reports suggested he could miss multiple weeks. However, on Monday, the perennial All-Star was cleared for Game 1.
ESPN’s Shams Charania confirmed he participated in Monday morning’s shootaround and is good to go.
Oddsmakers are still in favor of the Spurs heavily, installing them as near double-digit favorites on the spread for Game 1 and -600 outright to win the series, per BetMGM. The Wolves are priced at +425.
| Team | Series winner | Series spread | Series total games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spurs | -600 | -1.5 (-375) | Over 5.5 (+180) |
| Timberwolves | +425 | +1.5 (+300) | Under 5.5 (-225) |
No one expected Minnesota to keep up with the Nuggets, especially after injuries to Donte DiVincenzo, Edwards, and backup guard Ayo Dosumu, who exploded for 43 points in place of Edwards, only to be ruled out with a hamstring injury in Game 6.
Jaden McDaniels and Rudy Gobert effectively shut down the Jokic and Jamal Murray tandem while stepping out of their comfort zones on offense.
On the boards, the Timberwolves were plus-8.8 in rebounding differential over Denver, thanks to the trio of Gobert, Julius Randle, and sixth-man Naz Reid, all of whom averaged seven rebounds or more.
This type of physicality could overwhelm a younger Spurs team, but what’s hurt the Wolves has been their foul trouble. No team committed more personal fouls per game than Minnesota (25.3), which allowed Denver to live at the charity stripe.
This is important because they’ll need to replicate their lockdown brand of defense and limit their fouling to slow down the Stephon Castle/De’Aaron Fox pick-and-roll action with Wembanyama.
The Spurs also led all teams in postseason play, shooting 41.8 percent from 3-point range after the first round. Whether it was San Antonio’s great shotmaking or the Blazers’ lack of resistance on the perimeter, Minnesota stifled Denver to just 32.1% from beyond the arc, making it unlikely the Spurs will match that output.
In what’s expected to be a highly contested series, the Spurs’ potent depth, with six players averaging ten or more points in the postseason, makes them a trending bet to reach the West Finals.
I’m not buying into the hype just yet, as Edwards and the Wolves have unfinished business.
Minnesota is embarking on its third straight conference finals appearance, and coach Chris Finch’s team is frankly better as an underdog.
Not to take any credit away from San Antonio’s amazing season, I do think they’ll have enough to win Game 1 and even go up 2-1 at one point, but Edwards’ return automatically makes Minnesota a dangerous out.
The Plays: Spurs to win Game 1 and Wolves win the series (20/1, BetMGM) | Timberwolves to win in seven (10/1, bet365)
Mike Turay is a sports journalist and editor who closely follows the NBA, NFL, college sports and UFC. He has demonstrated expertise in both NBA and NFL player prop bets for nearly three years. Mike is also highly knowledgeable about the sportsbook offer landscape, frequently trying and reviewing the latest apps and sites.
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