New Zealand’s World Cup is likely to come to an end on Friday night, but you have to give the All Whites credit: They gave it a real go.
While most long shots opt to play things safe, the Kiwis tried to play their way into the knockout stage. They can still pull it off, but they’ll need to upset Belgium as 13/1 underdogs.
Belgium can advance with a win or a draw, but the Red Devils know that they need three points to have a chance to top Group G ahead of Iran and Egypt.
Nothing has come easy for Belgium in this tournament. They fell behind Egypt and needed Romelu Lukaku to save them with a draw, and then they were held nil-nil against Iran in a match that saw them go down to 10 men after a red card.
It’s been tough sledding in every area of the game, but Belgium’s attack has been the real disappointment.
While you may be tempted to excuse them for the scoreless draw against Iran because of the red card and the absence of Jeremy Doku, it’s still a match that the Belgians would be expected to win, especially after drawing against Egypt in the opener.
Those two ties have now put the Belgians in a spot where a loss to New Zealand, as unlikely as it would be, sends them home.
New Zealand may be a flawed team that lacks playmakers, but they’ve been a frisky bunch through their first two matches. They were ahead twice against Iran before settling for a 2-2 draw, and they could have been up by multiple goals against Egypt. Instead, they squandered a 1-0 lead in a 3-1 defeat.
Belgium has plenty of offensive firepower in its ranks, but the Red Devils have really struggled to get out of first gear. They’re playing a stagnant brand of soccer, and they’ve looked fearful of making a mistake that could lead to a chance against. That tepid approach put them in a precarious position against New Zealand.
On paper, this should be a runaway win for the Belgians. But they’ve played things so close to the vest that I have a hard time seeing the Red Devils just going out there and playing New Zealand off the pitch.
The fact that New Zealand needs to go for the win may open this thing up at some point, but don’t be surprised if it takes a long time for this match to get out of first gear.
The Play: Under 2.5 goals (+186, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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