There is just one more month to go until co-hosts Mexico take on South Africa at the iconic Estadio Azteca in Mexico City to kick off the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
And while international soccer tournaments are tough to project due to an inconsistent schedule and the lack of relevant data compared to domestic competitions, we can lean on a few betting trends to help us get our ducks in a row ahead of what figures to be the biggest sporting event the world has ever seen.
The answer is yes and no.
While the World Cup is almost always won by one of the heavyweights, it’s been unkind to the outright favorite in recent iterations.
Brazil topped the odds before the start of Qatar 2022, and they were bounced in the quarterfinals. La Seleção were also eliminated in the quarterfinals as co-favorites at Russia 2018. Their running mates at the top of the board, Germany, didn’t even get out of the group stage.
The same thing happened to Spain when they were the chalk to win the 2014 World Cup. That said, La Furia Roja was the last outright favorite to win the World Cup, lifting the trophy in 2010.
Generally speaking, it’s been the teams right behind the favorites that have cashed in the modern era of the World Cup.
The average odds of the last seven World Cup winners were +710, with Italy (2006) the highest price at 11/1.
The last three winners, Argentina, France, and Germany, were all inside the top-three on the odds board when the tournament started.
Spain and France look like they will be co-favorites to win the 2026 World Cup, with England, Brazil, and Germany rounding out the top five.
No.
While we haven’t seen a true long shot lift the trophy, we almost always see one outsider make a Cinderella run into the deep stages of the tournament.
In 2022, we got a pair of shockers. Morocco, a 250/1 long shot finished third, and Croatia (65/1), which has made a habit of outrunning its odds at the World Cup, finished fourth.
In 2018, Croatia got to the final as a 33/1 sleeper.
The list goes on. Turkey and South Korea were massive surprises when they were semifinalists in 2002, and Uruguay was a 50/1 sleeper when it went to the final four in 2010.
Teams like Japan (55/1), Ecuador (80/1), Senegal (80/1), and Canada (150/1), could be worth a real hard look to make a run this summer.
Four years ago, it would have been a safe bet that the United States would be a trendy sleeper pick at the 2026 World Cup. The timing of the tournament coincided with the emergence of a new “golden generation” that was to be guided by the best manager the country could find. Throw in the fact that they are co-hosting the tournament, and you’ve got a lot of solid ingredients for a dark horse.
However, the lead-up to the 2026 World Cup has been tumultuous for the Stars & Stripes.
There’s been discord on and off the field, and manager Mauricio Pochettino’s methods haven’t translated into results.
Despite all of that, the Yanks are still the favorites to win Group D at +105 (FanDuel), putting them ahead of Turkey, Paraguay, and Australia.
That seems like a steep price to pay on a team that has more questions than answers with a month to go.
Norway.
Playing in their first World Cup since 1998 and boasting one of the world’s best players, Erling Haaland, the Norwegians are down to 22/1 to lift the trophy, putting them ahead of Belgium and almost on level-pegging with the Netherlands.
There’s a lot to like about Norway, but they’re in a brutal group with France, Senegal, and Iraq.
Don’t be shocked if they fail to get into the knockout stages, even with the expanded field.
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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