Ukraine has a six-month window to seize the battlefield momentum and create a major “turning point” in the war against Russia, whose invading force has been exhausted, a senior Kyiv commander said.

Brig. Gen. Andriy Biletsky, who leads Ukraine’s Third Army Corps — one of the country’s most respected fighting forces — said Russia had suffered its worst year of the invasion since the war began in 2022, with Moscow’s army now exhausted and its manpower dwindling.

“I believe the next six to nine months are a turning point,” Biletsky told Reuters, predicting a major shift along the front lines. “More precisely, ​I think the next six are the most critical. “

With Ukraine’s Donetsk “fortress belt” successfully repelling Russia’s army for dozens of months, Kyiv is poised to start retaking key positions in the greater Donbas region, which Moscow has repeatedly claimed was a must-have prize in the stalled peace talks.

Thanks to the layout of the land, Russia has been forced to launch head-on attacks against the fortress belt. Biletsky’s forces, who hold one-tenth of the total front line, have held back the invaders every time.

Russia’s meatgrinder tactic has cost it nearly 35,000 soldiers per month in 2025 alone, according to the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank.

With 2026 nearly halfway through, Biletsky said Russia’s forces continued to be drained like never before, creating a key opportunity for the frontlines to shift.

“The lack of personnel no longer allows them to advance the way they did, for example, ​a year ago,” said Biletsky.

Russia’s troubles and fatigue have been on full display this year. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that his forces had retaken nearly 230 miles back from Moscow so far in 2026.

“We need to define those directions where we can improve our positions, ​take some strategic points, and then speak with the Russians from a position of strength — not weakness — about a truly stable truce,” Biletsky said of the current situation.

“From a military point of view, this is realistic,” he added.

Russian President Vladimir Putin was also notably forced to downsize his annual Victory Day parade earlier this month in the face of Ukraine’s ever-evolving drone attacks, which have now proven to reach Moscow more consistently.

Kyiv is now “actively challenging the positional character of the war” and capable of staging new assaults on the front lines, the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War think tank said in its latest analysis.

Ukraine’s positioning has also improved following SpaceX CEO Elon Musk denying Moscow’s forces access to his Starlink satellite system, complicating Russia’s advances on the frontlines.

While Russia deals with the technological blow, Biletsky said his men were ramping up the deployment of stealth drones and armed robots on the frontlines.

The tech “revolution” has allowed Biletsky and other commanders to avoid more battlefield losses while bombarding Russian positions, with soldiers looking to get even more “creative” to capitalize on the situation.

“It will happen this year, and I think we’ll show how our corps is a vivid example of it,” Biletsky said, predicting more victories for his men.

A conflict-analysis expert backed up Biletsky’s assessment of the war.