The score isn’t always indicative of the game, and the Golden Knights-Avalanche series opener was a testament to that.
After seven days’ rest, Colorado fell 4-2 despite outshooting Vegas by a 38-28 margin and owning the 5-on-5 play, projecting a 59.3 percent Corsi rate (overall puck possession) and a 63.6 percent expected goals share.
They struck on one of three power plays and led the turnover margin by 10.
And, oh yeah, they were missing Cale Makar.
Nobody imagined Colorado falling to a 2-0 deficit in these playoffs, and the oddsmakers agree. The market’s highest price on the Avs is -192 to win Game 2.
The crux of the loss was that they failed to sustain any offensive-zone pressure with cycles or recover the puck after initial attempts. Vegas head coach John Tortorella’s initiative to stack the neutral zone was expected, and the Knights sparked some cleaner rush chances because of it. What’s more is that Tortorella’s heralded shot-blocking clinic absorbed 22 Avalanche shots.
That still didn’t stop Colorado from doing what it does best in generating high-danger looks: the Avalanche peppered Vegas goalie Carter Hart with 18 of them to the Knights’ seven.
It’s not that Colorado goalie Scott Wedgewood was woeful, but he dropped the ball on a couple of mid- and low-danger shots, and Hart didn’t; Dylan Coghlan beat him clean in the five-hole while Brett Howden buried a sloppy rebound in front.
The Avalanche won’t need Wedgewood to outperform Hart every night — they just need him to be competent relative to the quality of chances allowed. He’s proven he can do that with a .980 percent low-danger shot save percentage and having broken positive ground in goals saved above expected at 1.5.
Colorado’s stars are primed to find reward for their efforts on Friday. Nathan MacKinnon only showed flashes in Game 1, and the Nazem Kadri–Valeri Nichushkin–Ross Colton line was the most effective on the ice. Nichushkin continues to produce at a near point-per-game playoff pace, and we know Kadri has all the playoff pedigree to elevate in high-leverage moments.
With that said, there’s only so much Vegas can rely on secondary scoring if Jack Eichel and Mitch Marner aren’t steering the ship.
Expect a far more aggressive game from the NHL’s most aggressive team, designed to keep Hart on his toes before Vegas can settle into its shell.
THE PLAY: Avalanche -1.5 (+140, Fanatics)
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
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