Remember the last time Cam Schlitter and Connelly Early faced one another?
It was Game 3 of the AL Wild Card. The decision for both sides to opt for rookies in a decisive postseason game felt like a Hail Mary, but the name value has only soared ever since.
Schlittler validated his legitimacy with 12 strikeouts in eight innings of shutout ball in a decisive 4-0 triumph for the Yankees.
It was only in his most recent start against Cincinnati that he eclipsed that number, fanning 13 in six innings of scoreless play.
The 25-year-old Massachusetts native isn’t showing any signs of yielding in the AL Cy Young race. Heading into the 17th start of his breakout campaign, he is a +105 favorite for the award at FanDuel.
Now with two starts against the Red Sox this season, Schlittler has himself a 1.32 ERA in 13 ⅔ innings.
The Yankees are road favorites, with a number as short as -141 at DraftKings, while the run total is set at 8.
Early has settled into the Red Sox rotation since valiantly falling to Schlittler in October. He’s not ace material, but he’s served Boston reliably as a backend starter during a year where organizational disconnect has cratered its outlook via John Henry’s penny-pinching neglect.
He’s allowed more than three earned runs in only three of his 15 starts. After enduring three straight losses, Early bounced back with a victory in a strong performance against Seattle on Saturday, allowing just two hits and striking out seven in six innings.
The weather forecast in New England is more trustworthy than the Red Sox right now; they just dropped two of three to the pitiful Rockies. Boston and the Bombers bookend the AL East with 15 ½ games between them.
The offense is tied for second-to-last in wRC+, and they can’t buy a win at Fenway, owning an MLB-worst 12-25 home record.
For what it’s worth, the perseverance of the Sox bullpen has been wasted this year: it ranks third overall in ERA at 3.25. The next team behind them? The Yankees at 3.35.
Without Aaron Judge, the Yankees are not the same offense. Ben Rice, Paul Goldschmidt, and Cody Bellinger have picked up some slack, but the Yankees have dropped from No. 2 overall in wRC+ to No. 15.
With some offensive wrinkles on both sides, grounded pitching, and the magnitude of Yankees-Red Sox, eight runs is a lofty enough ceiling to go under the total.
THE PLAY: Under 8 (-105, FanDuel)
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
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