LeBron James vs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Austin Reaves vs. Cason Wallace.

Deandre Ayton vs. Chet Holmgren.

JJ Redick vs. Mark Daigneault.

The Lakers vs. Thunder is about as David vs. Goliath as it gets when it pits Hollywood’s team without the NBA’s leading scorer against the defending champions who are approaching history.

California Post sports reporters Khobi Price, Melissa Rohlin and Michael Duarte answer the most pressing questions of the Western Conference semifinals and include a prediction in the end.

1.) Do the Lakers actually have a chance? 

Price: Yes – even verrrryyyyyy slim chances are still a chance. Even though the Rockets were without star forward Kevin Durant for five of six games, the Lakers’ first round playoff series victory showcased their resiliency and adaptability with Luka Doncic sidelined for the entire series and Austin Reaves out for four of the six games. Obviously, the Thunder are much better than the Rockets. They’ve had the best player and have been the best team in the league the last two seasons. But the Lakers still have a chance even if it doesn’t feel like it.

Rohlin: No. As Lakers coach JJ Redick said at Sunday’s practice, the Thunder are “one of the greatest teams ever in NBA history.” The Lakers are not. The Lakers may have stunned us all by getting past the Rockets in the first round, but the Thunder are a completely different caliber of basketball team. The Thunder’s defense is too good. And the Lakers will be without Doncic and his NBA-leading 33.5 points at least at the beginning of the series. I don’t see how the Lakers can pull this one off. 

Duarte: This reminds me of the scene in “Dumb and Dumber,” when Lloyd Christmas, played by Jim Carrey asks the married Mary Swanson what are the chances that they end up together?

“Not good. I’d say more like one in a million,” she answers. “So you’re telling me there’s a chance!” he replies happily. 

One in a million sounds about right for the Lakers against the reigning champs. Even if Luka Doncic returns, it will likely take a catastrophic injury to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to tilt this series in their favor. 

2.) What makes OKC so difficult to win against?

Price: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the reigning league MVP who’s likely on the cusp of his second time receiving the honor. The Thunder’s defense, which has been the best in the league over the last two seasons, is defined by the team’s physical style of play and led by Chet Holmgren. The Thunder have at least five All-Defensive caliber players on their roster – maybe even more depending on the evaluator. And they have one of the best coaches in the league in Mark Daigneault. A true embarrassment of riches. 

Rohlin: They’re great at everything. Gilgeous-Alexander is so dependable he can be likened to a metronome. Every night he’s going to score 30 points. From top to bottom, everyone who gets minutes on this team stars in their role. Their defense is historically good, with everyone taking the less glamorous side of the game as seriously as offense. The Thunder are just a well-oiled machine. They could become the league’s next dynasty. 

Duarte: Where do we begin? Do you have a few hours? Everything starts with defense, and Oklahoma City turns it into their offense’s oxygen. Chet Holmgren protects the rim while their long, physical, and active defenders suffocate the passing lanes. They switch everything on the perimeter and have a ton of high-IQ players like former Laker, Alex Caruso. On offense, SGA is their MVP scorer who punishes mistakes and makes a living at the free-throw line. Blink and they’ll be on a 12-0 run. They’re inevitable.

3.) Who are the X-factors in this series?

Price: For the Lakers: Luke Kennard. The Lakers need as much offensive production as they can get with Luka Doncic sidelined to start the series, and can’t afford for Kennard to either not produce or have his playing time decrease because the Thunder target him defensively. 

For the Thunder: Isaiah Joe, who was the Thunder’s second-leading scorer during the regular season series against the Lakers. The Thunder already create a lot of problems on both ends of the floor. Joe having big games would be a reflection of the Lakers not executing their game plan. 

Rohlin: For the Lakers, Luke Kennard. Without Doncic, the Lakers need scoring help. Kennard needs to be aggressive. He needs to become the team’s third option on offense. He needs to hunt for his shot and help space the court for LeBron James and Austin Reaves. Otherwise, the Thunder’s defense is just going to smother LA. 

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For the Thunder, Cason Wallace. After the Lakers fell to the Thunder in February, Austin Reaves heaped praise on the 22-year-old’s ability to make everyone’s life a living hell. When Wallace is pouring his heart out on the defensive end, the team’s already swarming defense is even stronger. 

Duarte: For the Lakers, it’s Rui Hachimura, whom Chet Holmgren recently dubbed “The Japanese Jordan.” He’s been L.A.’s explosive wildcard. He holds the Lakers all-time record for three-point shooting percentage in the playoffs at 50.8%. He’s shooting 58.6% this postseason and attacking mismatches. Add Austin Reaves, playing near his Arkansas roots—he’ll need to average at least 25 points per game.

For OKC, it’s Jalen Williams. If he’s available for Game 1 and his hamstring holds, his scoring versatility, perimeter shooting, and two-way presence could quietly extinguish any belief the Lakers have of winning this series.

4.) What’s the single stat that could swing the whole series?

Price: 3-pointers made. It isn’t the most groundbreaking conclusion, but in order for the Lakers to have any shot at beating the Thunder, they’ll need to not only need to ensure they take a lot of shots, but they also need to up their 3-point frequency and accuracy. The Thunder will likely win many battles: The turnover margin and 2-point scoring are just a couple of them. But 3-point shooting is an area the Lakers may be able to swing the series – a task easier said than done with Doncic not available to start the series and his status uncertain. 

Rohlin: 1-0. The Thunder won a championship last season while the Lakers didn’t even make it past the first round of the playoffs. The Thunder are going to be ready for this moment. They’re expected to be playing in June. The Lakers weren’t even expected to get past the Rockets last round. In addition to the Thunder’s superior skill in this series, they have belief. They know they belong. And that’s a powerful thing. 

Duarte: Turnovers. OKC thrives on them, turning mistakes into easy points. The Thunder were the second best team in the NBA at forcing turnovers this season. In their four regular season meetings, the Lakers coughed it up far too often, averaging 17.5 turnovers per game. That fed into the Thunder’s transition attack and a big reason why they lost by an average of nearly 30 points per game. If the Lakers protect the ball, and win the three-point shooting battle, they at least give themselves a puncher’s chance.

5.) Who wins in how many games, and why?

Price: The Thunder in six. Oddly enough, recent history is on the Lakers’ side. The defending champions haven’t advanced to the Conference finals in the playoffs since the Warriors in 2019 after winning in ‘18. In an era defined by parity, it’s been more challenging than it has been in nearly 50 years for teams to have high levels of postseason success in successive years. But the Thunder are unlike any other team this decade, and should be in control of this series.  

Rohlin: The Thunder in five. This is going to be a quick series. The Thunder swept the teams’ regular season meetings by an average of 29.3 points per game. That’s nuts. Twenty-nine points a game!!!!! 

Duarte: A better question would be: Will OKC sweep, and if not, why? The Thunder are deeper, younger, faster, and battle-tested. They are on par with the 1995-98 Chicago Bulls and 2015-2018 Golden State Warriors as one of the best teams in NBA history. The Lakers are surviving on resilience, grit, and a 41-year-old LeBron James. That’s admirable, but not nearly enough. Thunder in five.