After playing the “Game of the Decade” in the first leg of their Champions League semifinals last week, Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain will go back at it on Wednesday with a spot in the final on the line.
PSG defeated Bayern, 5-4, at the Parc de Princes in Paris on Tuesday, meaning the German giants need to win to at least force extra time. A victory or draw for PSG would see them qualify for the final, which is being held on May 30 in Budapest, for the second year running.
Bayern is a -167 favorite to win Wednesday’s match, and the Bavarians are a slight -125 favorite to advance, despite being down a goal on the aggregate scoreline.
We’re unlikely to ever see anything like what took place last week again at this stage of the competition, but the bookmakers are still calling for fireworks. If you want to bet Over 2.5 goals, once the default setting for goal totals at this level, you need to lay -500.
That’s an absurd price, especially when one of these teams is at least slightly incentivized to approach this contest with some semblance of pragmatism.
PSG was a willing combatant against Bayern Munich in the first leg, but don’t forget that Luis Enrique’s side won this competition largely on the strength of its defense last season, and they are just one round removed from pitching back-to-back clean sheets against Liverpool in the quarterfinals.
And while Ligue 1 is far from the standards of the other elite competitions in Europe, PSG has conceded just 27 goals and 28.1 expected goals in 31 matches in domestic play this season.
Slowing down Harry Kane and Bayern is a massive undertaking, but PSG is one of the few teams on the planet that could feasibly go into Allianz Arena and back themselves to hold Die Roten in check.
While most of the betting world will be looking to back goals, goals, and more goals in this tilt, we’ll zag and take an outrageous price on the opposite.
The Play: Under 1.5 goals (10/1, bet365)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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