The NBA and NHL may have finished their respective seasons over the weekend, but the MLB is here to get us through the dog days of summer. On Monday night, there’s a 10-game slate to pick from. We’re centering in on a duel between a couple of struggling AL squads with hopes of turning their seasons around as the Houston Astros host the Detroit Tigers this evening.

Here’s a betting prediction and pick for tonight’s Tigers vs. Astros matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Tigers vs. Astros prediction, preview

Detroit Tigers

It’s been a rough year for Detroit after the club looked like an up-and-coming contender over the last couple of postseasons. Now sitting fourth in the AL Central at just 29-42, the Tigers recently got multi-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal back into the rotation, but he’s no bandage for all the team’s issues. They’re 6-4 across their last 10 games but the overall run differential is still -12 as they deal with a largely uninspiring offense. Detroit averages only 4.06 runs per game and sits 21st in OPS at .705. The club’s slash line reads .234/.315/.390, though they get the better of their splits against a right-hander tonight with a .240 AVG and .709 OPS on the year. Plus, 58 of their 76 homers have come against righties and a .156 ISO falls 15th among all teams to begin with. The Tigers also have an 0.43 BB/K ratio that ranks eighth.

Second-year RHP Troy Melton gets the start tonight after going 3-0 in his first four appearances of the campaign. He has a 2.81 ERA and 1.01 WHIP across 25.2 IP, though he’s struck out just 14 hitters. Melton does bring above-average velocity with an excellent 5.9% BB%, but his whiff rate and K% both leave a lot to be desired. He’s backed by an average bullpen that holds a 4.06 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 11.7% K-BB%.

Houston Astros

The Astros had a solid weekend with two wins in their most recent series, bringing their record to 33-40 on the campaign. A run differential of -39 is certainly not worthy of a postseason team though, so Houston will be faced with tough decisions over the next two months. The Astros average 4.56 runs per game and are a respectable 10th in OPS at .729. The club slashes .243/.318/.411 and is just slightly worse against right-handers like they’ll face tonight, hitting .242 in the split with a .723 OPS. However, 68 of their 96 homers home come via righties, while a .168 ISO ranks sixth best in the entire MLB. Sure, much of that comes from Yordan Alvarez, who notched two homers in one inning over the weekend, but there are other power bats as well. The 0.41 BB/K ratio is average, but there aren’t major concerns with the plate process to worry about.

This evening, the Astros send RHP Kai-Wei Teng to the mound. He’s gone just 3-5 across 20 total games with seven starts, but he has a 3.71 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 49 Ks across 51.0 IP. Teng struggled in his last couple of starts, but has largely been great at keeping the ball off the barrel of opponents while forcing a few more ground balls than average. The Houston bullpen has crept to a 4.74 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 9.5% K-BB%, but has been quite solid recently with a 2.72 ERA over the last two weeks and 2.66 in the last month.

Tigers vs. Astros pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Astros as -123 Moneyline favorites at home today. The Tigers are +102 underdogs to win outright with the run total set at an even nine.

Best Bet: Kai-Wei Teng over 9.5 H + BB + ER allowed (-102)

As mentioned earlier, the last couple of starts for Teng have been quite ugly. Against the Pirates on June 6, he allowed seven hits, two walks and four earned runs in 5.0 IP. Against the Angels on June 9, he conceded another seven hits, three walks and five earned runs in just 4.0 IP. That brings his June totals to 14 hits, five walks and nine earned runs across just two starts. That doesn’t look great at all, so it seems his confidence may be shaken at the moment. Now, he could easily escape this purple patch against a Detroit offense that’s far from stellar, but it turns out the Tigers are actually showing signs of life as of late. They have an .860 OPS on a .261/.330/.530 slash line over the last two weeks with a staggering .269 ISO. With their recent form and Teng’s lack thereof, I expect him to go over this combined H + BB + ER line today at hitter-friendly Daikin Park.