Two of baseball’s early season surprises are set to meet this afternoon in Sacramento. The Cardinals (24-18), written off by most analysts this offseason, have surpassed all expectations so far. It’s a similar story for the Athletics (22-20), who currently sit atop the lackluster AL West. Who will emerge victorious during Thursday’s rubber match?

The A’s are favorites (-112) over the Cardinals, with the over/under set at 9.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s showdown between St. Louis and the Athletics on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Cardinals vs. Athletics prediction, preview

Offensive production is easy to come by at Sutter Health Park, a hitter’s haven. With that being said, the Cardinals are sending one of their best arms to the mound in Michael McGreevy. The 25-year-old is a throwback, profiling more as an innings eater than a fireballer. That’s not a bad thing; McGreevy possesses elite command and a knack for inducing weak contact. His 1.99 BB/9 ratio ranks as the 14th-best mark in baseball among qualified starters.

With that being said, it’s fair to say McGreevy has gotten a bit lucky this season. He’s recorded a 5.05 expected ERA and .502 expected slugging percentage against. That latter mark puts the third-year pro within the league’s bottom ninth percentile. To make matters worse, this is a difficult matchup on paper. The A’s own baseball’s fifth-highest OPS against right-handed pitching (.753). They’re averaging 5.06 runs per game at home, sixth-most in the majors. Over their last ten games, five different Athletics hitters have an OPS above .800. That includes catcher Shea Langeliers, who leads the American League with a .331 batting average.

If the Cardinals are going to pull this one out, it’ll likely mean plenty of hitting. That’s proven difficult for this group over the last two weeks. During St. Louis’ previous ten games, the team has scored a National League-worst 32 runs. Still, there’s plenty of talent in this lineup. Former top prospect Jordan Walker is finally living up to his lofty potential. Through 41 games, the outfielder is slashing .290/.369/.555 with 11 homers, 30 RBIs and seven steals. He’s accompanied by three other standouts in Ivan Herrera (136 wRC+), JJ Wetherholt (129 wRC+) and Alec Burleson (125 wRC+).

The catch for St. Louis? No hitters on this roster other than those four have a wRC+ above 100. In simple terms, this offense is top-heavy. It’ll be up to A’s hurler Jacob Lopez to keep the visitors in check. After a breakout 2025 campaign, the 28-year-old has hit a wall this season. Through 35.1 innings of work, he’s produced a dismal 6.11 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. However, he’s allowed two earned runs or less in three of his last four outings. In addition, the left-hander owns a respectable 3.66 ERA at Sutter Health Park. Lopez is, in many ways, the opposite of McGreevy. A 3.34 xERA and .277 xwOBAcon suggest positive regression is on the horizon.

Cardinals vs. Athletics pick, best bet

You’d be forgiven for expressing some hesitation when it comes to backing Lopez. However, I’m viewing this more as a way to fade St. Louis’ slumping lineup. A soft-tosser such as McGreevy doesn’t inspire much confidence against a powerful A’s lineup either. Given their advantage at the plate, expect the home team to emerge victorious in this West Coast matinee.

Best Bet: Athletics ML (-112)