In the second part of today’s NBA Playoff double header, the Minnesota Timberwolves will host the San Antonio Spurs with their season on the line. The Spurs have taken a 3-2 series lead over the Timberwolves, and Minnesota will look to defend its home court tonight.

Looking at the odds for Game 6, the Spurs are 5.5-point favorites and hold -218 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Timberwolves hold +180 odds of winning outright, with the game total set at 218.5 points.

Timberwolves vs. Spurs preview

The Minnesota Timberwolves have made it to the Western Conference Finals in back-to-back seasons, but are one loss away from falling short of this goal. Injuries have been a major factor in this postseason, but Minnesota continues to embrace a next-man-up mentality. This comes after the Timberwolves went 49-33 across the regular season to earn the sixth seed in the Western Conference. They defeated the Denver Nuggets in the opening round, battling through plenty of injuries on the roster. On the season overall, the Timberwolves have gone 42-51 against the spread, and the game total is 42-51 to the over/under across all matchups played.

Donte DiVincenzo remains sidelined as he is still in the beginning stages of his recovery from the torn Achilles tendon that he suffered in Game 4 of the opening round. His absence will continue to be greatly felt, but not having Anthony Edwards on a minutes limit and Ayo Dosunmo being back available is a major improvement in their outlook. Terrence Shannon Jr. is the lone other player on the injury report with a head injury, as he is listed as questionable.

Looking at the production this year, Anthony Edwards remains the head of the snake. The four-time All-Star is posting averages of 28.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 3.7 assists on the season. Julius Randle has outperformed his expectations, scoring 21.1 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 5.7 assists per game. Jaden McDaniels has scaled up his scoring role in a major way during this playoff run and helps set the tone for this team. Rudy Gobert, Naz Reid, Terrence Shannon Jr., and Mike Conley also play notable roles.

As a team, the Timberwolves average 118.0 points per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. They also rank 12th in offensive rating, ninth in field goal percentage, and sixth in three-point percentage. Opponents are scoring 114.6 points per game against Minnesota, which ranks 12th in the league. They also rank eighth in defensive rating, seventh in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 13th in three-point percentage.

The San Antonio Spurs flipped the switch into the contending conversation this season and have already proven some skeptics wrong across this postseason. After finishing last year with a 34-48 record, the Spurs finished as the second seed in the Western Conference this season by going 62-20 overall. San Antonio closed down the regular season by winning 19 of their final 22 games and defeated the Portland Trail Blazers in five games in the opening round. On the season overall, the Spurs have gone 53-38-2 against the spread, and the game total is 42-51 to the over/under across all games played.

The Spurs enter this matchup with a clean injury report. Victor Wembanyama headlines the production as the most game-changing defensive talent in the league, with overall averages of 25.0 points, 11.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and 3.1 blocks this season. De’Aaron Fox provides some necessary veteran experience to this roster, averaging 18.6 points and 6.7 assists, while Stephon Castle helps set the tone on both sides of the ball and adds 16.7 points, 7.4 assists, and 5.3 rebounds per game. Devin Vassell, Harrison Barnes, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson, and Julian Champagnie also play key roles.

The Spurs rank third in the NBA in scoring, adding 119.8 points per game. They also rank fourth in offensive rating, sixth in field goal percentage, and 15th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 111.5 points per game against San Antonio, which is the eighth-best rate in the league. Mitch Johnson’s squad also ranks third in defensive rating, fourth in opponent field goal percentage, and eighth in opponent three-point percentage.

Timberwolves vs. Spurs Series Takeaways:

It was a surprising Game 1 result in this series, as Minnesota’s postseason experience proved critical. San Antonio improved their record from 34-48 last season to 62-20 this year. They have looked the part of legitimate contenders across the regular season, but there is some amount of playoff scars that still need to be carved, and the Timberwolves have much more postseason experience.

Minnesota ultimately produced a 104-102 victory in the series-opening matchup. San Antonio got a good look at the buzzer for a potential game-winning three-pointer by Julian Champagnie, but the shot was off the mark. Spurs’ head coach Mitch Johnson elected to pass on calling a timeout and for the shot to occur organically. San Antonio got a look they should feel solid about, but it still felt like a massive missed opportunity from this Spurs team.

Overall, neither team extended a lead by more than nine points in the matchup, and each side led for 35%+ of the matchup. The rebounding battle was 47-46, the teams shot 46% and 45% from the floor, and the points in the paint were 58-52.

The Spurs are the more talented team who have played at a higher level for most of the season. But the Timberwolves have not been given the proper respect and have taken advantage of each opportunity they have had. Anthony Edwards looked healthier than seemed realistically possible after the opening round injury scare.

Things looked much different in Game 2, with the Spurs asserting the level of dominance they showed in the regular season. San Antonio cruised to a 133-95 win in which they led for 96% of the matchup and were able to get their starters some additional rest. Minnesota was limited to 40% shooting from the field and 30% from beyond the three-point arc.

Minnesota followed suit by prioritizing the rest of their own once the game got unreachable. Splitting the two games in San Antonio should be looked at as a success from the Timberwolves’ perspective, as they will return home with the series fully up for grabs.

Game 3 was a competitive battle that the Timberwolves were unable to fully cut the difference in. San Antonio held a lead for 87% of the game, but never extended it beyond 15 points. It was a four point game with 1:45 remaining in the fourth quarter, but the Timberwolves were unable to fully flip the game. While the result was frustrating, it was a positive sign that Edwards was able to log a full workload and looked closer to the healthy version of himself.

Minnesota evened up the series in Game 4, in a game that’s outlook shifted when Victor Wembanyama was ejected for a flagrant two for swinging his elbow at Naz Reid. Wembanyama had played just 12 minutes of action before the ejection occurred, and this was vital to Minnesota producing a 114-109 win. It was an evenly fought matchup in which neither side extended a lead by more than nine, and both teams led for 44%+ of the matchup. The Timberwolves’ experience was necessary down the stretch, especially with the Spurs being without their biggest star. Minnesota outscored San Antonio 34-25 in the fourth quarter to secure the win. 

San Antonio took back control of the matchup in Game 5, with a convincing 126-97 win. Minnesota was limited to just 39% shooting from the field and 29% from beyond the three-point arc. It was a wire-to-wire win for the Spurs, who extended the lead to as many as 30, and both teams were able to pull their starters for some additional rest.

The Spurs will be looking to deliver the knockout punch and officially advance to the Conference Finals for the first time since 2016-17. The Timberwolves will need to win back-to-back matchups to reach this stage of the playoffs for their third straight season. This will start with forcing a Game 7 with a win in Game 6 tonight.

Timberwolves vs. Spurs Game 6 prediction, pick

My lean is toward the Timberwolves having enough resiliency and toughness to defend their home court and force a Game 7. Experience matters in the postseason, and there are a few different stretches of this series where you can see the playoff scars from the past being necessary on the surface. San Antonio holds a talent advantage, but their youth can still be a factor, and they have been punished because of this.

However, my best bet for Game 6 is for the game total to go over the 218.5 game total. Through the opening five games in this series, the combined total has finished at 206, 228, 223, 223, and 223. The game total has gone over in four consecutive games, and expect this trend to continue in this Game 6 matchup.

It is a near-impossible task to score in the half-court when Victor Wembanyama is settled and patrolling the half-court. His 8-foot wingspan can erase shots in the half-court before they are even attempted, and the Defensive Player of the Year has tallied 22 blocks across the first five games. 

But this has led the Timberwolves to make an effort to scale up their pace of play and attack before the defense gets set. Wembanyama is capable of getting up and down the floor as well, but every margin matters. With Wembanyama’s mobility in mind, the Spurs finished the regular season ranked 13th in pace. Since the playoffs started, these two teams rank first and second in pace. For reference, the Spurs are posting a 100.50 pace in the postseason while the Timberwolves sit at 99.50. The next-highest pace of a remaining playoff team is the New York Knicks at 96.45. Both the Spurs and Timberwolves finished the regular season ranked in the top seven in scoring and are in the top four in points per game of the remaining playoff teams.

Count on both of these teams continuing to make a clear effort to get up and down the floor and create easy baskets. The game total has gone over in four straight matchups in this series, and don’t expect tonight to be any different. Expect a clear priority by the Timberwolves’ ball-handlers to attack in transition and for the Spurs to have no trouble matching this pace of place, with the 218.5 game total line being too low.

Best Bet: Game Total Over 218.5 (-112)