Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and best bet for today’s baseball game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Dodgers and Pirates return to PNC Park on Wednesday after a series opener that looked far louder in the box score than it played for six innings. Los Angeles eventually won 12-3, but Paul Skenes held the lineup to two runs before Pittsburgh’s bullpen unraveled in the seventh. That distinction matters against Jared Jones, whose return from elbow surgery has already produced one shaky outing and one reminder of his ceiling. Shohei Ohtani gives the Dodgers the clear starting-pitcher advantage, though the better question is whether their lineup can get to Jones before the game reaches the bullpen portion that broke open Tuesday night. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
| Matchup | First Pitch (ET) | Temp | Wind | Precip % | Delay Risk |
|---|
| LAD at PIT | 6:40 p.m. | 85°F | W 9–11 mph | 20% (eve.) | LOW–MOD |
|---|
Ohtani’s season on the mound has been ridiculous enough to narrow the handicap. He enters 6-2 with a 0.74 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 67 strikeouts, and five earned runs allowed across 61 innings, and hitters have done almost nothing with authority against him. The contact numbers match the surface line, with a .206 wOBA allowed, .245 expected wOBA, 87.6 mph average exit velocity, and 3.5% barrel rate. Pittsburgh has enough competent bats in Nick Gonzales, Brandon Lowe, Bryan Reynolds, Ryan O’Hearn, and Marcell Ozuna to avoid a dead-under read, but Oneil Cruz’s absence from the posted lineup removes the one Pirate who can change the first five innings with one swing and one sprint.
Jones makes the other side of the matchup more complicated than the Dodgers’ reputation suggests. He still lives around 99 mph with the fastball, and last week’s five scoreless innings in Houston showed how quickly the stuff can overwhelm a lineup. Minnesota also reached him for five runs over 4.1 innings in his first start back, which matters for a pitcher making only his third major-league start since an internal brace procedure cost him all of 2025. The velocity creates margin for mistakes, but his command and contact management have not fully caught up to the arm strength yet.
That gap gives Los Angeles its early scoring lane. Jones has allowed a 91.7 mph average exit velocity, 50% hard-hit rate, 10.7% barrel rate, and .370 expected wOBA through two starts, with the four-seamer already carrying the loudest damage. That is a dangerous profile against a lineup that forces maximum execution from the first pitch. Ohtani brings a .301 average, .938 OPS, 11 homers, 37 RBI, 52.3% hard-hit rate, and 15% barrel rate from the leadoff spot. Andy Pages has turned the two-hole into a run-producing seat with 15 homers and 56 RBI, while Freddie Freeman enters with six homers and five doubles over his last 18 games. Max Muncy’s 17.4% barrel rate gives the middle third another direct answer when Jones misses above the belt.
Pittsburgh’s early run prevention keeps the play from becoming automatic. The Pirates allow 2.38 runs through five innings at home, and Jones has enough swing-and-miss to leave Dodgers traffic stranded for one trip through the order. Will Smith’s neck issue also trims some on-base skill from the lower middle, even with Dalton Rushing giving Los Angeles a playable replacement. The case still tilts toward the Dodgers because their scoring has traveled early all season. They lead MLB with 3.07 runs through five innings and rise to 3.48 on the road, which fits a matchup built around patience, power, and a second look at a pitcher still rebuilding major-league rhythm.
The expensive full-game markets ask too much for the obvious roster gap, and the game total requires more Pittsburgh offense against Ohtani than I want to bet. The run-line version also gives Jones too much room to pitch well and still lose us a 3-2 or 3-1 first-half score. Dodgers first five innings team total over 2.5 runs keeps the bet on the best part of the matchup: Los Angeles’ top-half pressure against Jones before Pittsburgh can fully manage around him. The fastball is electric, but the early contact allowed, workload uncertainty, and left-handed thump in this Dodgers order make three runs reachable by the sixth.
Best bet: Dodgers first five innings team total over 2.5 runs at -115. Playable to -120.
Projected score: Dodgers 5, Pirates 2.
Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
此内容由惯性聚合(RSS阅读器)自动聚合整理，仅供阅读参考。 原文来自 — 版权归原作者所有。