Just about everything has gone wrong for the Red Sox (23-32) this season. Although it’s early, the time is now for Boston to dig itself out of last place in the AL East. That could prove difficult on Friday night against the Guardians (33-25), among the best teams in the Junior Circuit. Can Cleveland defend home field this evening against a struggling opponent?

The Guardians are favorites (-131) over the Red Sox, with the over/under set at eight runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s showdown between Boston and Cleveland on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Red Sox vs. Guardians prediction, preview

Pitching has been a relative strength for the Red Sox, even with staff ace Garrett Crochet (shoulder) injured. However, today’s matchup will come down to an unproven arm in Tyler Samaniego. The rookie will be making his major league debut, acquired this winter as part of a trade with Pittsburgh. Over 17.1 innings with Triple-A Worcester this season, the righty owns a 2.08 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 13 strikeouts. As of now, he’s expected to serve as Boston’s opener.

After an inning or two of Samaniego, it’ll be Brayan Bello toeing the slab. Following a terrific 2025 campaign, the wheels have fallen off for the right-hander. Through 49.0 innings of work this season, he’s on the hook for a 6.43 ERA, 1.80 WHIP and 35 strikeouts (6.4 K/9). The Dominican has never possessed wipeout stuff, making it difficult to get out of jams with runners on base. Per Savant, he ranks inside the bottom fifth percentile in xERA (6.27), strikeout rate (15.1%) and expected batting average (.309).

At this point, it’s impossible to trust Bello against any lineup with a pulse. Cleveland isn’t the most intimidating group at the plate, but this squad shouldn’t be overlooked either. Despite middling power numbers, the Guardians rank 11th in on-base percentage (.320) and fourth in stolen bases (54). As previously mentioned, Bello has been prone to putting runners on. That could spell trouble against a club that isn’t afraid to force opposing defenses into mistakes.

It’s not as if the Guards have an ace on the mound tonight either. Slade Cecconi has been somewhat ineffective in 2026; over 57.1 innings pitched, he’s recorded a 5.18 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and 47 strikeouts (7.4 K/9). However, he’s allowed only seven earned runs over his previous four appearances (2.91 ERA). The 26-year-old’s advanced metrics aren’t the best, but it’s certainly a step up compared to Bello. Cecconi has limited hard contact, ranking within the top 70th percentile in average exit velocity (87.7 MPH) and hard-hit rate (35.0%). To boot, he also possesses above-average command (7.9 BB%).

If there’s anything preventing a return trip to the postseason in Boston, it’s hitting. The team is averaging just 3.82 runs per game, second-worst in the American League. Among Red Sox hitters with at least 100 plate appearances, only four have a wRC+ above 100 this season. Youngsters expected to take a leap, such as Roman Anthony (94 wRC+) and Marcelo Mayer (60 wRC+), have struggled at the plate. Cecconi’s two favorite off-speed pitches are the slider (17%) and curveball (15%). Against those selections, Boston hitters own a .207 expected batting average and .278 expected on-base percentage.

Red Sox vs. Guardians pick, best bet

At this point, it’s difficult buying into this Red Sox offense. Recent success should only make bettors more bullish on Cecconi tonight as well. It helps that on the other side, Bello looks absolutely lost on the mound. Even if it takes a few innings, Cleveland’s small-ball approach could frustrate Boston’s beleaguered hurler. The Guardians have enough to earn a win at home tonight.

Best Bet: Guardians ML (-131)