Sean Barnard details his preview and prediction for Monday’s Game 4 between the Orlando Magic and the Detroit Pistons.
Despite being the 1 vs. 8 matchup in the Eastern Conference, the series between the Detroit Pistons and Orlando Magic is shaping up to be one of the most entertaining of the opening round. The Magic have leaped out to a 2-1 series lead, and the Game 4 matchup will remain in Orlando tonight.
You can check out a preview for the full Magic vs. Pistons series on DraftKings Network here.
Looking at the odds for the Game 4 matchup, the Pistons enter as 3.5-point favorites and hold -155 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Magic hold +130 odds of winning outright, with the game total set at 215.5 points.
For the bulk of the season, the Magic have been one of the more underwhelming teams in basketball. Orlando made the all-in push to trade for Desmond Bane in an effort to leap up the list of Eastern Conference contenders. But it battled injuries all year and failed to get a proper sample size of how the team is designed. This recent stretch of postseason play has been its most encouraging level of play all year. Ultimately, Orlando finished as the eighth seed with a 45-37 overall record. Orlando lost to the 76ers in the first Play-In matchup, but it blew out the Hornets to earn this playoff opportunity. On the season, the Magic went 39-45 against the spread, and the game total has gone 44-40 to the over/under.
Jonathan Isaac is the lone player on the injury report for the Magic, and he is listed as doubtful with a left knee sprain. Paolo Banchero headlines the production, posting averages of 22.2 points, 8.4 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game across the regular season. Franz Wagner has battled injury issues all year but contributes 20.6 points, 5.2 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game. Desmond Bane has stepped up as a leader and is necessary to space the floor, adding 20.1 points, 4.1 rebounds and 4.1 assists while shooting 39.1% on three-point attempts. Anthony Black has enjoyed a breakout season, while the likes of Jalen Suggs, Wendell Carter Jr., Tristan da Silva and Goga Bitadze play key roles as well.
Jamahl Mosley’s squad averages 115.7 points per game, which ranks 15th in the league. It also ranks 19th in offensive rating, 21st in field-goal percentage and 27th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 115.1 points per game against Orlando, which ranks 13th in the league. The Magic also rank 11th in defensive rating, 19th in opponent field-goal percentage and 11th in opponent three-point percentage.
After jumping into the postseason mix last year, the Pistons took a massive leap forward by leading the Eastern Conference from start to finish this season. But they have not played meaningful basketball for several weeks. For a team built on physicality and toughness as an identity, Detroit has struggled to flip the switch and look like a contender again. The Pistons finished the regular season with a 60-22 record and went 44-38 against the spread this season. The game total also remained under in 44 of their 82 games.
Kevin Huerter is the lone Pistons player on the injury report and is listed as questionable with left hip soreness. Cade Cunningham battled a collapsed lung at the tail end of the season but returned for the final three regular-season games and has largely looked like himself in the postseason. The former No. 1 pick leads the Pistons with 23.9 points, 9.9 assists and 5.5 rebounds on the season. Jalen Duren made an All-Star leap alongside him, posting averages of 19.5 points and 10.5 rebounds per game on the season, but he has greatly struggled in this series. Daniss Jenkins has been a breakout impact player this year, while Tobias Harris provides veteran leadership to the young roster. Ausar Thompson, Kevin Huerter, Duncan Robinson and Ron Holland also play notable roles.
Detroit is scoring 117.8 points per game this season, which ranks eighth in the NBA. The Pistons also rank 10th in offensive rating, third in field-goal percentage and 17th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 109.6 points per game against the Pistons, which ranks third in the league. J.B. Bickerstaff’s squad also ranks second in defensive rating, third in opponent field-goal percentage and first in opponent three-point percentage.
The Pistons opened this series as a -425 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, and these odds have now shifted greatly. Entering Game 4, the Pistons hold narrow -125 odds of advancing to the second round while the Magic hold +105 odds of winning the series.
Orlando leaped out to a 1-0 series lead by producing a 112-101 win in Game 1. The Magic led for 97% of the matchup, stretching the lead to as many as 13 despite shooting just 29% on three-point attempts. Orlando won outright as an 8.5-point underdog and proved capable of matching Detroit’s physicality.
The Pistons got back in the win column in Game 2, in a 98-83 rock fight. Orlando shot just 33% from the field and 25% on three-point attempts, while Detroit connected on 46% of its shot attempts and 23% from the perimeter. The Pistons were able to win the rebounding battle 57-42 and covered the 8.5-point spread.
In Game 3, the Magic got back on top with a 113-105 win. Orlando won the rebounding battle and stretched the lead to as many as 17, leading for 79% of the overall matchup. The Magic won outright as 2.5-point underdogs. In the series, the game total has gone under twice but over in the previous matchup.
Detroit has largely overwhelmed teams this season with its size and physicality this season. But the Magic have proven capable of matching this and looked like the team they have hoped to be all year. Orlando has not put a full sample size of who it is supposed to be all year. But the recent stretch of play is as encouraging as we have seen all year from this Magic team.
Cade Cunningham is the best player in this series, but the next few names on this ranking list belong to the Magic. Paolo Banchero has largely risen to the occasion in this series, Desmond Bane has been a difference-maker as designed, and even Franz Wagner has shown more positive flashes than has been the case for most of the season. In contrast, Jalen Duren has wilted a bit at the moment, averaging just 9.0 points and 8.3 rebounds thus far in the series after having his All-Star breakout this year.
Tonight’s game will take place in Orlando for the second time in this series. Orlando took the series advantage in the first game in front of its home crowd, but it went just 21-21 against the spread in games played at home this season. But Detroit has traveled well, going an impressive 28-13 on the road straight-up and 22-20 against the spread.
The rebounding has played a major role in deciding the outlook for this series. It has been concerning how underwhelming Duren has looked, considering the way he broke out this season. Detroit is at its best when playing with a more physically commanding presence and asserting itself. Orlando has not been bothered by this to this point.
Both these teams lean on their defensive identity for success. Each has some shortcomings with their offensive attack and lack of reliable creators, which has proven problematic to varying degrees. The Magic have overachieved at the start of this series at a level that should inject more belief into the Orlando fan base. But they have also failed to maintain this high level of production for any consistent stretch this season.
The Pistons have not played to their peak level in these opening three games and have paid the price because of this. They now have their backs against the wall much quicker than expected to be the case, so count on this bringing out the best in the roster. There are simple fixes the Pistons must make, which have led them to picking up a pair of losses. A few missed rotations, sloppy box outs and untimely turnovers have sunk this team. These are frustrating but also fixable issues. Expect a full-scale effort from the Pistons tonight to even the series and cover the spread. Detroit has proven itself as the better team on the wider scale of the season and has narrowed its margin for error in this series in a major way. It has shown to be one of the toughest teams in the league all season, and expect this to be evident tonight.
Expect the most complete performance we have seen from the Pistons in this series, with Cunningham leading the charge and the rest of the roster following. This is a series that feels destined to go deep and back the Pistons to put forth a winning effort to even things up 2-2 and for them to finally look like the Eastern Conference leaders they showed themselves to be all season.
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