Nearly one-third of the MLB regular season has been played, with every team having played between 47 and 50 games of the league’s 162-game schedule. Lots has changed since last season: the Chicago White Sox have a winning record, and the Toronto Blue Jays have a losing one.

Still, for the fifth consecutive season, the Colorado Rockies sit dead last in the NL West, though after finishing 43-119 last season, they’re at least on pace to improve on last season’s results. They’ll have a chance to pick up their third series win of the season this afternoon when they face the Texas Rangers at 3:10 p.m. ET.

Texas will send Jack Leiter to crest the hill for the series finale, while Colorado will counter with longtime staff ace Kyle Freeland.

Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Texas Rangers at Colorado Rockies prediction, preview

The Rangers have done pretty much what they did last season, when they finished 81-81. This season, Texas is 23-25, but it has the run differential of a 25-23 team, and because every other member of the AL West has floundered, the Rangers actually trail the division-leading Athletics by just one game. Just like last season, Texas has been mediocre on offense, amassing just the sixth-lowest OPS after ranking fifth-to-last in that stat last season, but at least Josh Jung and Ezequiel Durán have OPS’s north of .800, and two-time World Series MVP Corey Seager is a candidate to bounce back after he returns from the injured list. The Rangers have had dominant pitching, just as they did last season: their starters have the league’s ninth-best ERA, with Jacob deGrom (3.02) leading the way, and their bullpen is the only unit with a combined ERA under 3.00. All four of the relievers with at least 20.0 innings pitched so far this season have a 2.70 mark or better. If they sustain that level of form for the rest of the season, Texas will be a tough out, regardless of its offensive struggles.

As for the Rockies, they’ve been more competitive than they were last season, last night’s 10-0 loss notwithstanding. After finishing with the league’s fourth-worst offense last season, Colorado has jumped all the way to 16th in OPS so far, and Mickey Moniak, who was worth negative WAR last season, leads the National League in slugging percentage so far. The Rockies finished with the worst rotation and the second-worst bullpen in baseball last season, and while they still have the worst rotation despite free agency signings Tomoyuki Sugano and José Quintana pitching decently, their bullpen has been just the league’s 10th-worst this season, with former starter Antonio Senzatela embracing a new role as a setup man. Colorado’s high altitude will probably keep the team from ever having a truly elite pitching staff, but it has made strides in the right direction.

Last season, Leiter could best be described as “decent”, as he finished with a 3.86 ERA, and so far in 2026, it’s been more of the same. He sports a 4.35 mark through his first nine starts, but he’s in hot form, as he’s given up just seven hits and one earned run in his last 11.2 innings of work. Advanced numbers don’t back up his solid repertoire, though; he ranks in just the 27th percentile in pitching run value and the 32nd in expected ERA, and he’s especially prone to hard hits, posting just a 10th-percentile barrel rate and a 30th-percentile hard hit rate. Thankfully for him, the Rockies have made soft contact, ranking fifth-to-last in barrel rate and sixth-to-last in hard hit rate. Colorado also whiffs and strikes out a lot, which Leiter already excels at as is, and while Leiter walks a lot of batters, the Rockies aren’t good at drawing free bases. Given that Colorado’s struggles should help mitigate his weaknesses, Leiter should be able to produce six solid innings, even though he’s been worse on the road throughout his career and the Rockies have (expectedly) been better at home.

Leiter should comfortably win the starting pitching matchup against Freeland, who hasn’t had an impressive season. The southpaw finished seventh in NL Cy Young Award voting in 2018, but since then, his career has gone downhill. He led all of the major leagues with 17 losses in 2025, and so far this season, he has a 7.22 ERA, giving up 31 hits and 23 earned runs across 18.0 innings in his last four starts. Unsurprisingly, his advanced numbers also aren’t impressive; his 5.42 expected ERA ranks in the 15th percentile, and he also has a below-median average exit velocity, whiff rate, strikeout rate, hard hit rate, and ground ball rate. The Rangers, who rank fifth in both hard hit rate and average exit velocity, should be primed to take advantage. Additionally, while Freeland excels at generating chases, Texas has a below-average chase rate, so it could be able to make him work the count. The splits also aren’t in Freeland’s favor: he’s been somewhat worse at home, while the Rangers have had an OPS 110 points higher on the road so far.

Texas Rangers at Colorado Rockies pick, best bet

Best Bet: Texas Rangers -1.5 (+119)

I’m just not sold by anything about Freeland’s recent form, and Texas’ propensity to hit the ball hard, combined with hitter-friendly Coors Field, should extend his struggles. Colorado’s offense doesn’t have particularly impressive advanced numbers, so it’s not well-suited to take advantage of Leiter’s weaknesses.

Strong Lean: Jake Burger 1+ Home Runs (+421)

If there’s ever a pitcher to take a big swing against, it’s Freeland, who’s allowed an OPS north of .800 to right-handed batters in his career. That makes him a great matchup for Burger, the team’s leader in home runs this season. Freeland likes to throw four-seamers to righties, and Burger had a .646 expected slugging percentage against that pitch last season.