Zach Thompson details his best bets for Round 1 of THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch in Texas.
After the second major of the season, the PGA TOUR is off to the Lone Star State for a two-week stop in Dallas TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas, hosts THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson this week for the first of the back-to-back weeks in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. Even though it’s a very different field from last week’s major, it should be a great week of golf. There are many great options to consider from all across the variety of markets available on DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s pinpoint a few of my best bets for Round 1 of the PGA Championship.
The tee times for Round 1 begin at 8 a.m. ET with players scheduled to tee off from both No. 1 and No. 10 in two waves. The weather could be an issue, with thunderstorms in the morning, cloudy skies throughout the day, and more rain rolling in at night. The course has undergone renovations to make it tougher, but the water could still be receptive to low scores, especially if the wind gusts remain relatively calm. It’s Texas, though, so the weather can change quickly. Be ready to read and react to how scores are trending if you are live-betting the event.
In this post, we’ll focus on my three best bets for Round 1 of THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson on Thursday, May 21. Let’s tee it up!
When the weather and scoring conditions are a little uncertain, attacking a “3 Ball” matchup helps ensure an even playing field. For this style of matchup, it’s just a head-to-head-to-head, one-round matchup where the lowest score wins. Dead heat rules apply to ties. Since all three players are in the same group, they’ll play in the same conditions. The fact that there are three players instead of just two typically gives favorable plus-money odds like this prop as well.
Hubbard, Kim and Champ are on the schedule to tee off right at 8 a.m. ET as the first group off the 10th tee. While all three have had big weeks on the PGA TOUR, Hubbard is the only one without a career win. I like him to get the win in this threesome, though, since he comes in with very strong short-term form.
Hubbard finished runner-up at the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic two weeks ago behind Brandt Snedeker. He gained over one stroke per round on approach and with his flat stick, giving him just his second top-25 finish of the season. Before that performance, he missed the cut in Houston but made it in San Antonio, finishing T65 at the Valero Texas Open. The 36-year-old veteran also has a good history at TPC Craig Ranch with four made cuts in four appearances, highlighted by a T5 last year.
Kim is the favorite in this group, and he’s coming off a T6 in Myrtle Beach. He missed the cut in San Antonio and made the cut in Houston, the opposite of Hubbard. He has had better overall finishes this season, although his T6 was his first top-10 of the season. He has played TPC Craig Ranch four times, missing the cut last year and finishing T52 in 2024. His best finish at the venue was in 2022.
Champ has been in even worse form and has only played two PGA TOUR Events this year, missing the cut in Puerto Rico and the Zurich Classic. He did have a T9 and a T6 on the Korn Ferry Tour, but has missed the cut in four of his eight events on that circuit this season. Champ finished T15 at TPC Craig Ranch last year but missed the cut in 2024.
Champ and Kim have spike potential, but Hubbard’s form from Myrtle Beach and history at this venue make him a strong option to back in this early 3 Ball at almost 2:1.
I highlighted Cole in my cash game plays for this week, and I like his odds to get at least five birdies or better in Round 1. The course has undergone renovations over the last few years to cut down on low scoring and increase difficulty, but Cole has been playing well and has a good track record at TPC Craig Ranch.
Last year, he finished T5 with Hubbard with eight birdies in Round 1, five birdies and an eagle in Round 2, four birdies in Round 3, and six birdies in Round 4. In 2023, he went over this prop line in two of his four rounds in this event, as well.
The 37-year-old is rolling in after three straight top-15 finishes at the Valero Texas Open, the Zurich Classic and the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic. His short game has been very strong, setting him up for plenty of par-breakers.
The renovations are a wild card here, but the track should still be low-scoring, giving Cole a good chance to go low.
Another way to get plus-money odds in a matchup is to go with a 3-way matchup, which includes a tie as a third possible outcome. A tie is not scored as a push but as a loss for each player. It’s a nice way to get more favorable odds, though, if you’re convinced your pick has the advantage. It’s like a half-point being included in a point spread. For example, in this matchup, Schmid is -114 in the straight-up matchup, but moving to a 3-way matchup pushes the odds to +108.
Even though he hasn’t made the cut at TPC Craig Ranch, I like Schmid to take this matchup and highlighted him in my DFS Pivot Plays earlier today. Schmid has made the cut in nine of his last 10 events, including four top-10 finishes — with a T5 at the Puerto Rico Open and a T10 at the Zurich Classic. He’s coming off an impressive T4 at the PGA Championship, and last year he finished runner-up at the Charles Schwab Challenge on the other side of town.
He ranks seventh in the field in Total Strokes Gained over the last 30 days and 32nd in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over the last three months.
Eckroat comes in with some momentum as well, with a T10 at the Valero Texas Open, a T6 in New Orleans, and a T19 in Myrtle Beach. He missed the cut last year at the Nelson but finished runner-up back in 2023. Eckroat has the advantage in many categories, tee-to-green, but his putter has held him back, while Schmid’s really got rolling over his last few events.
This will be a fun matchup and could come down to the wire, but Schmid’s composure and form impressed me enough last week to back him in this three-way matchup.
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