Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins find themselves one game away from a sweep… that would send them packing for home. The Philadelphia Flyers have been the far better team through the first three matchups of this series, and it hasn’t been particularly close over the last two contests, either. Will this series come to a quick conclusion tonight?

Here’s a Flyers vs. Penguins Game 4 prediction and pick for today’s NHL Playoffs action on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Penguins vs. Flyers Game 4 prediction, preview

Heading into the series, Pittsburgh entered with -170 odds to take this best-of-seven. Now, the odds have Philadelphia at -2000. How the tables have turned.

The narrative here was something of a good old-fashioned offense vs. defense story. The Penguins were the third-best offense in the NHL during the regular season by measure of 3.54 goals per game, also ranking 10th in shots per contest (28.6) and seventh on the power play (24.1%). The Flyers were one of the top defensive teams, ranking ninth in goals allowed per game at 2.91 while conceding the fourth-fewest shots (25.5), though the penalty kill lagged behind at 22nd (77.6%).

Things have played out in surprising fashion, to say the least. The Flyers’ once-poor offense now sits third among all playoff teams with 3.67 goals a night, scoring three goals in each of the first two matchups before a five-goal explosion last time out. The defense has looked even more impressive, holding their opponents to only 24.7 shots per game. Their penalty kill has also improved (albeit in a limited sample) to 83.3%, good for seventh among the postseason field. The kicker? Philly has allowed only 1.33 goals per game to one of the best attacks in the league. The Penguins have scored four goals in three games and were shut out once. They appear hapless, lost, and outright outmatched.

Will that continue in Game 4? Pittsburgh will surely feel the weight of the stakes in this one with elimination looming. There’s more on the line, too, with this potentially marking the last game of this era of Penguins hockey. The futures of Crosby and longtime running mates Evgeni Malkin, Bryan Rust and more appear murky at best. This was supposed to be the last dance for the former title-winning veterans together, especially with the franchise teetering on the cusp of a re-tool or true rebuild in recent years.

Penguins vs. Flyers Game 4 pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Flyers as -120 favorites to win at home on the Moneyline tonight, while the Penguins come in with +100 odds on the road. The game total sits at 5.5 combined goals.

Betting splits show 71% of straight bets on Philadelphia to win, 56% of wagers on the home side to cover the -1.5 puck line, and 69% on the total’s over.

Look, the Pens look far outmatched right now. I get it, but I don’t think they go down without a fight. Is the series still within reach? Well, the short answer is no. Could they steal a game on the road to prolong the inevitable though? They could. The defense and goalie Stuart Skinner just have to tighten things up for 60 minutes, especially with Philadelphia still very low in shot volume with only 24.3 attempts a game. The Penguins’ own offensive talent is still better than that of their opponents, they just haven’t looked the part just yet.

The stakes are high and this series could very well come to an end. Crosby has only been swept in the playoffs once throughout his career though, which came way back in 2013 at the hands of the Boston Bruins. He’s logged a team-high 10 shots on goal in this series and is yet to score, so if he can keep up that good process, results should follow. I like Pittsburgh to keep it competitive and stay alive for one more game.

Best bet: PIT Penguins ML (+100)