It’s not often that an expansion team immediately comes into a league and finds much success. For instance, the most recent team to join the WNBA prior to last season’s Golden State Valkyries was the Atlanta Dream in 2008, when they went just 4-30. Prior to that, the Chicago Sky went 5-29 in 2006.

The Valkyries broke that mold last season by going 23-21 and making the playoffs, and the Toronto Tempo and Portland Fire are hoping to follow suit this season. Portland, at 2-3, seems more likely to follow the path of the Dream and the Sky, but the 3-2 Tempo, led by two-time WNBA Champion head coach Sandy Brondello, look the part of postseason contenders.

Toronto will look to continue its strong start to its inaugural season with an 8 p.m. ET road game against the Minnesota Lynx.

The Lynx are 6.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-270 Moneyline), with the total set at 172.5 points. The Tempo are +220 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this great northern affair and offer a prediction.

Tempo at Lynx prediction, pick

Toronto took a chance on 2025 first-time All-Star Brittney Sykes to build on her impressive age-31 season and be the linchpin of the franchise, signing a two-year, $2.38 million max contract. So far, that gamble has paid off tremendously, as Sykes is averaging 25.6 points per game and getting to the charity stripe a career-high 10.4 times per night. Along with Marina Mabrey, whom the Tempo also brought in during the expansion draft, Sykes has helped lead them to the third-best offensive rating and seventh-best defensive rating in the league. They’re off to a better start than the Lynx, who are still without 2025 MVP runner-up Napheesa Collier as she recovers from bilateral ankle surgery; Minnesota is 2-2, with the sixth-worst offense and seventh-worst defense. The Lynx have had a fairly well-balanced scoring attack, but they haven’t had any standout stars without Collier in the lineup.

Both teams have been pretty gettable in the interior, as Minnesota has allowed the fourth-most attempts within five feet and Toronto the fifth-most. However, unlike the Lynx, the Tempo have compounded their issues by allowing the second-highest percentage on such shots, and given that traditional starting center Nyara Sabally is doubtful tonight with a neck injury, I’m skeptical that rookie Laura Juškaitė alone will be enough to deter shots. Minnesota has also done a much better job both getting to the basket and finishing than Toronto has, as two Lynx players (Natasha Howard and rookie Olivia Miles) are among the 13 players averaging at least five restricted-area tries per game. Sykes is the Tempo’s only representative, and she’s finished less accurately than either Howard or Miles. The Lynx should have the advantage on the interior, though they, too, have a major injury concern, as backup center Emma Čechova tore her ACL just three games into her professional career.

Both of these teams have been pretty awful on the boards, ranking 12th and 13th, respectively, in rebounding percentage. Without Sabally and, likely, Temi Fagbenle, Toronto could continue to struggle, although it won the rebounding battle against the Phoenix Mercury by starting a double-big lineup featuring both Juškaitė and Maria Conde. Minnesota, which starts a three-guard lineup and no player taller than six-foot-two, is in an even worse position. The Tempo have also been excellent in transition on both sides of the ball, as Sykes and Julie Allemand both rank in the league’s top five in steals per game, and neither team has been particularly disciplined, which should benefit Toronto, one of the league’s best at drawing fouls. Miles has struggled some with fouls so far in her young career, and if she gets the Sykes assignment, the veteran should tempt the rookie into contact.

Both of these teams have locked up the perimeter. The Tempo have given up the eighth-fewest three-point attempts per game and the Lynx the fourth-fewest, and both teams have allowed opponents to hit at a sub-30% clip. That could benefit Minnesota, which doesn’t rely so much on perimeter shooting, attempting the fewest threes per game this season while Toronto has tried the third-most. Both teams have shot the ball well so far, but I’d bank more on the Lynx maintaining that, given that Kayla McBride has shot 7.3 percentage points less efficiently from deep so far than her career average and Miles was a much better shooter in college than she’s demonstrated so far in the WNBA.

Given Minnesota’s superior driving and finishing, it should win in this game, especially since it is also well-suited to slow down the Tempo’s Plan A of shooting. However, Toronto’s double-big lineup and ability to draw fouls could keep it in the game, and it has plenty of momentum after winning two consecutive road games, including one against a 2025 WNBA Finals team in the Phoenix Mercury. I’ll take the Tempo to cover the spread, but the Lynx to win.

Best Bet: Toronto Tempo +6.5 (-108)