It seems like all the recent attention in the NL East has been on the surging Phillies, but let’s take a moment to acknowledge how great the Marlins have been playing through the first two weeks of June. Miami is 10-2 to open the month, and with yesterday’s impressive win over Paul Skenes and the Pirates, the team has climbed all the way back up to .500 on the season.

Can the fish keep the good times going? They’ll have to beat yet another Cy Young caliber arm in Zack Wheeler on Monday.

Let’s preview this divisional battle and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.

Marlins vs. Phillies prediction, preview

There was some real concern about Zack Wheeler at the end of last season. Not only did thoracic outlet syndrome cost the Phillies their ace in the playoffs, but that’s a pretty daunting medical diagnosis for a 35-year-old pitcher. Would Wheeler pitch at all in 2026? Heck, would he ever pitch again? Maybe these worries were only among a small minority of MLB fans, but they certainly existed.

Now, in retrospect, those thoughts seem almost comical. Wheeler re-joined Philadelphia’s rotation in late April, and he’s been his usual self in the nine starts he’s made this season. Across 56.2 innings of work, the RHP has maintained a 2.22 ERA and a 3.24 xERA. Wheeler’s definitely benefitted from some luck in the form of a .209 opponent BABIP and an 89.6% strand rate, yet his velocity and command all look normal. Also, if you remove Wheeler’s first outing of 2026, when he was limited to only 84 pitches against the Braves, the former sixth-overall pick has thrown at least six frames in every game he’s appeared since his return. What else can you say? He’s a stud.

I can not heap the same amount of praise on Ryan Gusto, though the journeyman RHP did an admirable job in his last outing on June 10, tossing four scoreless innings versus the Diamondbacks. Gusto has been used as both a starter and a reliever in 2026, but the Marlins have recently needed to stretch out the 27-year-old thanks to injuries to Eury Perez (back) and Janson Junk (shin). It was a similar rash of ailments that got Gusto promoted to the Astros’ rotation last season, where pitched a majority of the year before being traded to Miami at the deadline. All told, Gusto worked to a 5.67 ERA and a 4.61 FIP over 101.2 innings. Opposing LHBs were his largest issue, as the 239 he faced combined to slash .321/.391/.580 with a .413 wOBA.

That should make this a pretty favorable matchup for the Phillies, who have the likes of Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Brandon Marsh sitting atop their lineup. Marsh, in particular, has been a revelation in 2026, hitting .333 with a 141 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. That said, Philadelphia has struggled with the bats since the calendar flipped to June. The club sits 23rd in wRC+ (100) and expected wOBA (.306) in the month, and a lot of the issues stem from a lack of consistent contract. To wit, the Phillies lead MLB in strikeout rate since June 1 at 27.8%. No other team is especially close, either.

Marlins vs. Phillies pick, best bet

Best Bet: Phillies -1.5 (+101)

The Phillies have been shutout in two of their past three games, but Ryan Gusto is not Jacob Misiorowski or even Kyle Harrison. He’s struggled immensely with left-handed bats, and Philadelphia should have six in its lineup this evening. Add in Zack Wheeler, and I’ll back Philly on the run line.

Strong Lean: Bryce Harper 2+ Total Bases (+107)

LHBs slugged .580 off of Gusto last season. Meanwhile, this season, Harper owns 97th percentile marks in both expected wOBA (.409) and expected slugging (.553).