Zach Thompson details his top home run props for Saturday’s MLB slate, including bets for Munetaka Murakami, Brice Turang and Corbin Carroll.
Major League Baseball has an overstuffed Saturday on the scoreboard for Memorial Day Weekend, with a doubleheader in Cincinnati putting 16 games on the board. Most of the action is in the late afternoon but a handful of games under the lights provide some marquee matchups as well. Let’s take a look at all the matchups and pick out a few home run props that make sense from what should be another awesome day of baseball.
As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate and can also quickly build your bankroll. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or combine them in a parlay or round-robin format to maximize the potential payout.
Make sure to check out the Grand Slam Payout promo on DraftKings Sportsbook, which is up to $1 million for this Saturday after three straight games without a grand slam. The promotion will continue through the rest of the month of May, with plenty of bonus bets still up for grabs. In this post, we’ll look at three of my favorite home run props this Saturday from Munetaka Murakami, Brice Turang and Corbin Carroll.
The weather in some of the early games is soggy with the wind blowing in, but one of the few exceptions is in San Francisco, where the wind is forecast to be blowing out for the second game of the series between the White Sox and Giants. Murakami has been very productive lately, even though he hasn’t gone yard in nine of his last 10 games. He’s making good contact, though, and he has a favorable matchup, so this could be a good spot for him to get back into home run production.
Over his last 10 games, Murakami is 10-for-33 (.303) with two doubles, two homers, seven runs scored and seven RBIs. He has a 40.9% hard-hit rate and 18.2% barrel rate over that stretch, and he is still making great contact. He smashed a pair of homers last Saturday against the Cubs to get to 17 taters on the season.
On Saturday afternoon, he’ll be facing Giants righty Adrian Houser, who has allowed eight homers in nine starts this season. Three of those homers have come in his 16 home innings, where he has a 7.31 ERA and 5.16 FIP. Lefties have hit .356 against Houser this season, with six of those home runs, a .327 ISO and a .483 wOBA.
Murakami will be on the strong side of those splits and in a good spot to go yard on Saturday afternoon.
Turang and the Brewers took Game 1 of their series with the Dodgers on Friday night, and I love his long-shot odds to go yard in the second game of the series on Saturday night, as the Dodgers give the ball to righty Roki Sasaki. Sasaki did look much better in his last start, giving up just one run in seven innings against the Angels, but he still has a 5.09 ERA and 5.53 FIP on the year, with nine homers allowed in eight starts. Lefties are hitting .293 against him with a 47.9% hard-hit rate and 11.3% barrel rate.
Turang is a well-rounded offensive producer more than a pure slugger, but he is tied for the team lead with seven long balls on the season. He homered against the Cubs earlier this week, but one of his most memorable homers of the season was this smash two Sundays ago:
Turang has hit all seven of his homers off of right-handed pitchers this season. He’s batting .288 with a .377 wOBA and three homers in his last 15 games. He has at least one batted ball with an exit velocity over 100 mph in three of his last four games, and he’s a great value to get a hold of one on Saturday night against Sasaki.
Carroll and the Diamondbacks have split the first two games of their series with the Rockies, and even though neither team has homered in the first two games of the four-game set, the stage is set for some fireworks on Saturday at Chase Field as struggling starters Zac Gallen and Michael Lorenzen take the mound. Lorenzen has allowed nine homers in his 11 starts this season, including seven to left-handed hitters, who have a .408 batting average against him with a .340 ISO, .515 wOBA, a 50% hard-hit rate and a 16.7% barrel rate against him.
Carroll has seven round-trippers on the year, and he comes into this matchup on Saturday night with good momentum. He has a 10-game hitting streak coming into the matchup, going 14-for-35 (.400) with three doubles, two triples and two homers over those 10 contests. He has a 21.4% barrel rate during that stretch with a 64.3% hard-hit rate and at least one batted ball over 101 miles per hour in seven straight matchups.
Carroll is 2-for-8 in his career against Lorenzen, and both hits have left the yard. He has hit six of his seven homers this season against righties like Lorenzen and four of his seven homers at home. He hit two homers against the Rockies last weekend and will look to get back in the homer column on Saturday.
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