Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and best bet for today’s baseball game between the San Diego Padres and the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Dodgers enter Petco Park with the loudest offensive pulse in this matchup after Saturday’s 15-3 demolition. They piled up 17 hits, scored in waves, and turned one sixth inning into three separate home-run swings. The lineup is thinner without Dalton Rushing, whose left-handed power would have strengthened the No. 8 spot. Still, Ohtani, Pages, Freeman, Betts, Muncy, Edman, and Tucker give Los Angeles enough top-seven force against King. San Diego also lost a useful piece with Ty France out, which makes the Padres’ scoring case shakier. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the San Francisco Giants and the Atlanta Braves.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
The Dodgers’ season-long profile against right-handed pitching remains the spine of the handicap. They own a .274/.354/.458 slash, .812 OPS, 88 HR, 101 doubles, six triples, 195 XBH, 321 RBI, and 250 walks in that split. Their road offense has been even sharper, carrying a .277/.365/.452 slash, .817 OPS, 57 HR, 78 doubles, eight triples, 243 RBI, and 261 runs in 43 games. King’s 3.33 ERA looks steady, but the 4.69 xERA shows a thinner margin underneath it. His sinker, changeup, and sweeper all carry an xBA above .250, and Los Angeles leads MLB with a .267 xBA.
The direct matchup file also pushes this toward Dodgers scoring. Current L.A. hitters have 98 plate appearances against King with a .244 average, .358 wOBA, 20.4% strikeout rate, 9.2% walk rate, 88.0 mph average exit velocity, and 18.3-degree launch angle. The expected damage is louder: .293 xBA, .633 xSLG, and .418 xwOBA. That profile fits a team total because the Dodgers can reach 5 runs through walks, doubles, homers, or one crooked inning. Betts adds the hottest bat in the game script, slashing .358/.407/.698 over his last 13 with 5 HR and 9 RBI. Tucker’s 3-for-5, HR, 4-RBI Saturday finally gives the lower half another impact swing.
The full-game over still deserves respect because Sheehan gives San Diego a path. He enters at 3-5 with a 5.32 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 76 K, and his June has unraveled to a 7.31 ERA. He allowed six runs, eight hits, and three walks over 3.1 innings last start, has lost four straight starts, and lasted 1.1 innings June 7. Current Padres have only 26 plate appearances against him, but the file is useful: .280 average, .370 wOBA, 90.3 mph average exit velocity, 23.6-degree launch angle, .261 xBA, .542 xSLG, and .351 xwOBA. San Diego’s larger righty split drags the over down, though, with a .220/.299/.369 slash, .668 OPS, 153 XBH, 212 walks, and 520 strikeouts.
The bullpen and weather keep Los Angeles live for the full nine innings. San Diego has premium relief talent, but its last-14 group profile sits at a 4.15 SIERA, while the Dodgers are close behind at 4.24. Jason Adam, Wandy Peralta, Adrian Morejon, and Mason Miller have worked scoreless recent frames, yet Ron Marinaccio carries a 10.15 ERA over 2.2 recent innings and threw 45 pitches Saturday. That usage matters for a team total because the Dodgers do not need every run against King. Petco also plays warmer than usual, with 69 degrees, 61% humidity, no rain threat, and 9-10 mph wind helping balls toward right field.
The best bet is Dodgers team total over 4.5 at +105. Rushing’s absence trims lower-order power, but it does not erase L.A.’s righty-crushing profile, road form, King matchup file, or late-inning scoring path. The full-game over is second because Sheehan can bleed traffic, but San Diego’s .668 OPS against righties and France’s absence weaken that angle. Dodgers -1.5 has a live path, though Padres damage against Sheehan makes the cover shakier than the team total. The F5 team total asks for too much precision with King’s surface line still respectable.
Projected score: Dodgers 6, Padres 4.
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