Last season, Paris Saint-Germain romped its way through the knockout phases of the UEFA Champions League en route to their first UCL title in club history, and based on the way Les Parisiens have played this season, they deserve to become the second back-to-back winners in modern history. But Bayern Münich has arguably been even more dominant in 2025-26, winning all but one match in the Champions League so far and claiming the Bundesliga title with four matches to spare.

It feels unfair that one of these teams, arguably the two best in Europe this season, won’t have the chance to play for a Champions League title, but they’ve drawn each other in the two-legged semifinal, with the winner advancing to face either Arsenal or Atlético Madrid in Budapest on May 30. The first match of the tie will kick off at 3 p.m. ET (9 p.m. local) on Tuesday in Paris, with the return leg set for next Wednesday at the same time in Bavaria.

PSG is a +135 favorite to win the first leg at DraftKings Sportsbook (+110 to advance to the final), and Die Roten are +175 (-135 to advance). A draw is available at +290.

Paris Saint-Germain vs. Bayern Munich prediction, pick

For the season as a whole, Bayern has been the better team, winning seven of its eight League Phase matches (all but one by at least two goals, with the lone one-goal win coming against Les Parisiens and the defeat against the Gunners). Die Roten have also lost just once in the Bundesliga all season, and they’re into the DfB-Pokal final with the chance to win a quadruple. By comparison, Paris has been disappointing, needing to go to the Knockout Playoffs, where it barely eked by Monaco. Still, an 8-2 aggregate win over Chelsea and a 4-0 result over Liverpool were fairly convincing, and it seems like Les Parisiens — just like they did last season — are peaking at the right time. They’ve lost five times in Ligue 1 (their most since 2022-23), but they’re still in good position to claim the league title over Lens. Bayern hasn’t lost since January 24, but PSG has only lost thrice over the same span, though all three came without captain Marquinhos, who’s back healthy now.

On paper, Les Parisiens have even more talent, as at 1.21 billion Euros at Transfermarkt, they have the fourth-most valuable squad in the world, four ranks ahead of Bayern. None of PSG’s players jump off the page statistically — reigning Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembélé leads the team with 16 goals in all competitions — but it’s extremely deep, with five different players recording at least 12 goals. Les Parisiens could’ve done a better job creating good chances, producing only the sixth-most expected goals per match, but they’ve been clinical, typing with Die Roten for the overall competition lead with 38 goals. They’ve also been elite defensively, allowing the seventh-fewest expected goals per match and the fifth-fewest goals per match while winning more than half of both of their ground and aerial duels. Paris has also been elite against both set pieces and fast-breaks, so even when it puts itself in bad positions, it usually escapes without a scratch. Les Parisiens also play relatively clean football, conceding among the fewest fouls and yellow cards, and their high press has produced the third-most high turnovers ending in a shot. Matvei Safonov has been one of the fastest risers in world football, and he’s been stellar this season in his 21 starts, posting a 72.1% save percentage.

Bayern arguably has the best striker in the world in Harry Kane, who will almost certainly win the European Golden Shoe. He’s reached the 50-goal threshold for the first time in his career, smashing home 53 goals in 45 appearances, and he’s in extremely hot form, netting in 14 of his last 15 games, and Luis Díaz and Michael Olise both have more goals than Dembélé. Die Roten have the best attack in the competition, averaging 2.80 expected goals and 3.17 goals per match, and they’ve been the second-best team from set pieces. Defensively, they’ve been a little more gettable, giving up chances worth the 12th-most expected goals, but they’ve allowed fewer goals than the defending champions. Bayern has also struggled in aerial duels and on fast-break situations, but it is far-less error-prone than Paris. Its press has also produced even better chances than PSG’s, though Les Parisiens’ superior passing means they should be in better position to break the press. I also trust Manuel Neuer between the sticks, though he’s had a lower save percentage than Safonov so far this season.

The first time these teams met, PSG dominated possession, 71% to 29%, and uncorked 25 shots to Die Roten’s nine, but a heroic eight-save effort by Neuer was enough to overcome Díaz’s 52nd-minute red card and earn all three points for the Bavarians. But those teams were pretty different: Dembélé left in the 25th minute with an injury and Hakimi in the 52nd, and Lucas Chevalier started between the sticks. PSG has only lost once at home with Vitinha in the lineup in 2026. It’s hard to pick against the defending champs.

Best Bet: Paris Saint-Germain Moneyline (+135)