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Friday night is the start of Rivalry Weekend in Major League Baseball, and all 30 teams are scheduled to be in action under the lights. The weekend features regional rivalries and cross-city contests, which is always an especially exciting weekend of baseball action. Friday night gives everyone a chance to start the weekend with a win, so let’s jump in and take a look at some of my top home run props from Friday night’s matchups.
As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate that can also build your bankroll quickly. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or choose to combine them in parlay or round robin formats to maximize the potential payout.
Be sure to jump in on the exciting Grand Slam Payout promo on DraftKings Sportsbook, where the bonus bets for Friday are up to $500,000 after no grand slams were hit on Thursday. In Friday’s matchups, my top three home run props are from Adley Rutschman, Mickey Moniak and Brent Rooker
The Orioles and Nationals meet in their Beltway rivalry at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C., on Friday night. Rutschman has six homers in his 28 games this season for a .262 ISO and .386 wOBA, which is a huge improvement from last season’s .146 ISO and .298 wOBA. Rutschman’s hard-hit rate is also up from 38.6% to 44.3%, and he has a 9.1% barrel rate.
Rutschman homered on Wednesday and has six homers in his last 18 contests. He has an 11.7% barrel rate over that span, and didn’t even catch a barrel on this blast on Wednesday:
He’s an amazing value at over 6:1 in a great matchup on Friday night against Zack Littell. Attacking Littell with home run props is almost always a good strategy. The 30-year-old righty gave up 36 homers in 32 games last year, and this year, he has continued to have trouble keeping the ball in the yard. He has served up 14 homers in 36 1/3 innings, with lefties hitting 11 of those 14 homers and posting a .462 wOBA and .305 batting average against him this season.
The switch-hitting catcher will face Littell from the left side, so Rutschman should be set up to stay hot Friday night. Since this game is one of the three early matchups, Rutschman is a great way to start the Friday slate with a good long-shot hit.
The Rockies don’t have an extremely obvious regional rival, but they’ll be at home this weekend, hosting their division rivals from Arizona. The weather forecast looks outstanding for offense at Coors Field with warm temperatures and gentle winds blowing out. One of Colorado’s best power hitters this year has been Mickey Moniak, and the former top prospect has hit 12 blasts in his 36 games this year while also delivering a .308 batting average, a .369 ISO, and a .439 wOBA.
Nine of his 12 homers have come in his 17 home games, and he’s hitting .358 with a .482 wOBA at home. The recently turned 28-year-old lefty has plenty of raw power to take advantage of the favorable conditions on Friday night.
He’ll be taking on Merrill Kelly, who had a good start in his most recent appearance but has allowed six homers in five outings this season, with a 7.62 ERA and 6.65 FIP. He has allowed an amazing 19.8% barrel rate this year and lefties like Moniak have blasted five of the six dingers against him this season.
Coors Field is almost always the best park for homers, but Sutter Health Park isn’t far behind, and the weather is forecast to be very homer-friendly in Sacramento as well. The Athletics host the Giants in what used to be the Battle of the Bay Area, but still has some juice even though the A’s have left Oakland.
On Friday night, the Giants will start right-hander Tyler Mahle, who is 1-4 in his eight starts this season with a 5.18 ERA and 5.03 FIP, while allowing eight homers in 41 2/3 innings. He gave up two homers in his last start and has an 8.16 ERA and 6.67 FIP on the road. Righties have hit six homers with a .316 average and .427 wOBA against Mahle this year, which is why Rooker is my preferred play in this matchup.
Rooker has been limited to 27 games this year, but he has five homers with a 15.2% barrel rate. He has three homers in his 12 games in May, with a 53.1% hard-hit rate and an average exit velocity of 91.7 mph. Rooker has had some bad BABIP luck overall, but his power is still present, and he has at least one hit over 100 mph in eight of his last 10.
Rooker’s splits are strong at home and against righties, so he is a nice value option to close out the night with at over 3:1 in a nice home run spot.
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