Chase Burns night reaches Great American Ball Park with Cincinnati badly needing one clean baseball game. The Reds are 33-37, have lost eight of 10, and are still playing without Elly De La Cruz. New York comes in 32-39 after taking two of three from Atlanta, with its lineup finally breathing again. That makes this opener uncomfortable. Cincinnati has the ace, New York has the steadier bullpen, and this ballpark never needs permission. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Cincinnati Reds and the New York Mets.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Reds vs. Mets prediction, preview

Burns gives Cincinnati the one shape that travels through any park. He is 7-1 with a 2.14 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 88 strikeouts, and 23 walks over 75.2 innings. He already saw these Mets on May 27 and held them to two runs across 5.1 innings. The arsenal explains why the first meeting traveled. His four-seamer sits near 98 mph, and his slider is the dividing line. That pitch has a .195 wOBA, 53.3% whiff rate, 48.8% strikeout rate, and 35.9% putaway rate. New York can hit mistakes, but Burns rarely gives hitters the same look twice.

Juan Soto is the whole scare. He owns a .401 wOBA, .423 xwOBA, 16.1% barrel rate, and 49.7% hard contact. He also homered off Burns last month, which keeps the Mets from becoming an easy suppression play. Bo Bichette gives New York another stress point after a 6-for-12 Atlanta series with five runs and six RBI. A.J. Ewing just went 3-for-5 with a homer Sunday, and Carson Benge gives the bottom half useful resistance. Francisco Alvarez brings power, too, though his whiff rate plays straight into Burns’ slider.

Tobias Myers makes Cincinnati’s scoring path strange because he probably will not work like a normal starter. Carlos Mendoza said Myers is stretched for roughly 40 pitches, with David Peterson or relievers behind him. The Reds should see different looks early, which can break timing as easily as it creates chances. JJ Bleday brings left-handed loft, a .384 xwOBA, and 12.1% barrels. Sal Stewart has the best middle-order bat with a .361 xwOBA and 14.9% barrel rate. Noelvi Marte has homered in three straight, giving Cincinnati one badly needed form bat. The team line still drags everything down. The Reds have only 37 June runs, a .218 average, 86 wRC+, 14 doubles, and 112 strikeouts. Elly’s injury removed the lineup’s best mistake punisher and its speed tax.

Mets vs. Reds pick, best bet

New York’s bullpen supports the Myers plan better than the opener label suggests. The Mets own a 3.30 relief ERA, fourth-best in MLB, and a 2.81 mark since May 1. Luke Weaver has logged 18 scoreless innings since May 1, and A.J. Minter has steadied the left side. Devin Williams carries Sunday usage, yet the group still has enough bridge options. Cincinnati’s bullpen creates the sweat on any Mets team-total under. Burns can leave ahead, then watch the late innings turn messy. The weather adds little fuel. Great American Ball Park needs no help, but 70s into 60s and light wind reduce the launch-game fear. Umpire remained pending, so Burns strikeouts should stay below the main total.

The market gives Cincinnati the favorite’s tax because Burns is that good. Reds ML -143 still asks a cold offense and shaky bullpen to finish the job. Reds team total over 4.5 leans on Myers’ limit, but New York’s bullpen answers that angle. Mets team total under 3.5 is the purer Burns ticket, though Cincinnati’s bullpen makes it nastier. Under 8.5 at -114 carries the cleanest combined case. It takes Burns, New York’s bullpen, Cincinnati’s missing star, and neutral weather into one bet.

Best bet: Under 8.5, playable to -120.

Projected score: Reds 4, Mets 3.

Best bet: Reds vs. Mets u8.5 total runs (-115)

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